Archives of “financial markets” tag

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1929 Wisdom

  
  Education
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From John Hussman:

Galbraith reminds us that the 1929 market crash did not have observable catalysts. Rather, his description is very much in line with the view that the market crashed first, and the underlying economic strains emerged later: “the crash did not come – as some have suggested – because the market suddenly became aware that a serious depression was in the offing. A depression, serious or otherwise, could not be foreseen when the market fell. There is still the possibility that the downturn in the indexes frightened the speculators, led them to unload their stocks, and so punctured a bubble that had in any case to be punctured one day. This is more plausible. “Some people who were watching the indexes may have been persuaded by this intelligence to sell, and others may have been encouraged to follow. This is not very important, for it is in the nature of a speculative boom that almost anything can collapse it. Any serious shock to confidence can cause sales by those speculators who have always hoped to get out before the final collapse, but after all possible gains from rising prices have been reaped. Their pessimism will infect those simpler souls who had thought the market might go up forever but who now will change their minds and sell. Soon there will be margin calls, and still others will be forced to sell. So the bubble breaks.”

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Stock Market Rules to Remember in 2014

  
  Education
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HNY-2014Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. It is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student, there is always someone smarter than you!

• “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”

• Let volatility work in your favor, not against you.

• Watch what our “Politicos” do, not say.

• Markets tend to regress to the mean over time.

• Emotions can be the enemy of the trader and investor, as fear and greed play an important part of one’s decision making process.

• Portfolios heavy with underperforming stocks rarely outperform the stock market!

• Even the best looking chart can fall apart for no apparent reason. Thus, never fall in love with a position but instead remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations. Use volume as a confirming guidepost.

• When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point. (more…)

10 points -Risk Managment

  
  Education
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1.    Never enter a trade before you know where you will exit if proven wrong.
2.    First find the right stop loss level that will show you that you’re wrong about a trade then set your positions size based on that price level.
3.    Focus like a laser on how much capital can be lost on any trade first before you enter not on how much profit you could make.
4.    Structure your trades through position sizing and stop losses so you never lose more than 1% of your trading capital on one losing trade.
5.    Never expose your trading account to more than 5% total risk at any one time.
6.    Understand the nature of volatility and adjust your position size for the increased risk with volatility spikes.
7.    Never, ever, ever, add to a losing trade. Eventually that will destroy your trading account when you eventually fight the wrong trend.
8.    All your trades should end in one of four ways: a small win, a big win, a small loss, or break even, but never a big loss. If you can get rid of big losses you have a great chance of eventually trading success.
9.    Be incredibly stubborn in your risk management rules don’t give up an inch. Defense wins championships in sports and profits in trading.
10.    Most of the time trailing stops are more profitable than profit targets. We need the big wins to pay for the losing trades. Trends tend to go farther than anyone anticipates.

The Bible of Technical Analysis Edwards & Magee- Some Things Never Change

  
  Education
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“It has often been pointed out that any of several different plans of operation, if followed consistently over a number of years, would have produced consistently a net gain on market operations. The fact is, however, that many traders, having not set up a basic strategy and having no sound philosophy of what the market is doing and why, are at the mercy of every panic, boom, rumor, tip, in fact, of every wind that blows. And since the market, by its very nature, is a meeting place of conflicting and competing forces, they are constantly torn by worry, uncertainty, and doubt. As a result, they often drop their good holdings for a loss on a sudden dip or shakeout; they can be scared out of their short commitments by a wave of optimistic news; they spend their days picking up gossip, passing on rumors, trying to confirm their beliefs or alleviate their fears; and they spend their nights weighing and balancing, checking and questioning, in a welter of bright hopes and dark fears.

Furthermore, a trader of this type is in continual danger of getting caught in a situation that may be truly ruinous. Since he has no fixed guides or danger points to tell him when a commitment has gone bad and it is time to get out with a small loss, he is prone to let stocks run entirely past the red light, hoping that the adverse move will soon be over, and there will be a ‘chance to get out even,’ a chance that often never comes. And, even should stocks be moving in the right direction and showing him a profit, he is not in a much happier position, since he has no guide as to the point at which to take profits. The result is he is likely to get out too soon and lose most of his possible gain, or overstay the market and lose part of the expected profits. (more…)

Fear and Greed in Financial Markets: A Clinical Study of Day-Traders

  
  Education
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GreedkillsContrary to common folk wisdom that financial traders share a certain set of personality traits, e.g., aggressiveness or extraversion, we found little correlation between measured traits and trading performance. The study finds that subjects whose emotional reaction to monetary gains and losses was more intense on both the positive and negative side exhibited significantly worse trading performance. Psychological traits derived from a standardized personality inventory survey do not reveal any specific \trader personality profile”, raising the
possibility that trading skills may not necessarily be innate, and that di erent personality types may be able to perform trading functions equally well after proper instruction and practice.

STOP TRADING until you can answer YES to all QUESTIONS

  
  Education
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Managing Risk as a trader is the most important consideration and if you answer NO to any of the following questions, then STOP TRADING until you can answer YES to all of them:

  • Do you have a written trading plan that deals with risk management?
  • Have you calculated the risk that you are comfortable with in every trade?
  • Will you not place a trade, even though you have a healthy balance in your trading account, when you know that your risk exposure goes beyond the risk outlined in your trading plan?
  • Have you identified what your maximum position size will be?
  • Do you have a stop in place every time you trade?
  • Are you aware that risk management is not just about where you place your stop?
  • Will you be able to stick to your risk management rules under ALL trading conditions?

There are many ways to manage your risk but until you have a risk management process written into your trading plan and you stick to these risk management rules on EVERY occasion, then you have more work to do until you are on your way to being a successful trader. (more…)

Bruce Lee on Stock Trading

  
  Education
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If Bruce Lee was a trader I believe this would be his advice:

If you let the market show you the way you will win.

Do not trade your opinions about what the market will do next,  instead always ask the questions:

What is the chart saying? Where is support and resistance?

Is the market trending or range bound? At what price level will I know that it has changed?

Where is all the capital flowing? What keeps going up day after day?

If I enter a trade at what price level will I know I was wrong?

Can I quickly admit I am wrong about a trade and move on to the next one?

Water is so versatile it can be ice in the winter and steam in extreme heat. Traders do well to be a bull in a bull market and a bear in a bear market.

Water can wear through a rock if it is a strong river.  You can win in the markets if you keep trading the right method over and over again.

Water takes the form of whatever you put water into. Traders should trade for the market conditions that they find themselves in.

Water can only be reduced to its core elements hydrogen and oxygen but it can not be truly destroyed. If you only risk 1% per trade your account can experience a draw down in capital but it to can not be destroyed.

Disaster

  
  Education
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When the market becomes volatile or a series of trades produce loses, it is easy for us to become fearful.

We then start to verbalize excuses as to why we even executed those trades or why we use the trading strategy that we use or any of a long list of items.

For all of us as traders to continue to grow, we need to develop a better way to address these situations. The foundation for this is analysis.

If we will be honest and look at the entire situation, generally we had executed a solid trade, however due to the very nature of the financial markets; an unusual movement occurred that caused us to not receive the results we expected. If we do this, most of the time we will see this fear, this confusion or these excuses just evaporate.

Are these times comfortable, never. Chaos is not comfortable, nor will it ever be.

But the successful trader will step up to the plate and handle this challenge instead of succumb to it. Do not allow a challenging situation to become a disaster because of fear or excuses.

The Legends Are Abandoning the Markets

  
Analysis, Education
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The legends are abandoning the markets. 

Stanley Druckenmiller founded his hedge fund Duquesne Capital in 1981. From 1986 onward he maintained average annual returns of 30%. He also managed George Soros’ Quantum Fund from 1988-2000. During that latter period he famously facilitated Soros’ “breaking of the Bank of England” trade: the legendary trade which netted over $1 billion in a single day. 

Druckenmiller closed Duquesne Capital in 2010, stating that he was no longer able to meet his investment “standard[s]” in the post-2008 climate (he made money in 2008 before the Fed began to alter the risk landscape). 

Druckenmiller’s key strength has always been macro-economic forecasting. That he would feel the capital markets were not offering him the opportunities he needed says a lot. 

Seth Klarman is another investment legend who is returning capital to clients. Widely considered to be the Warren Buffett of his generation, Klarman recently cited a lack of “investment opportunities” as the cause for his decision to downsize his legendary Baupost Group hedge funds. 

Other legends or market outperformers who have returned capital to investors or closed their funds to outside investors are Carl Icahn and Michael Karsch. Indeed, even value legend Warren Buffett is sitting on the single largest amount of cash in the history of his 50+ year career as an investor, stating that stocks are “fully valued” at current levels (Buffett largely does not believe in shorting the market, so his decision to be in cash is a strong indicator of opportunities). (more…)

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