Archives of “ethics” tag

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Greed is the Flip Side of Fear- Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Most people, I accept, would concur that childishness isn’t the reason for a solid, supportable society. Who of us needs a family where everybody pays a special mind to themselves, a club where individuals are attempting to sabotage our status or even a business where we should consistently watch our back. Individuals need and need to confide in each other. We need others to acknowledge what we need to state, to giggle at our jokes, to be concerned when we let them know of a mishap or sickness. At the point when we appear at a gathering, we need everybody to be glad to see us. To live in any case in a disconnected, defensive state is a bitterness.

 

To take a model, our lawful framework is of the “ill-disposed” sort, where we employ attorneys to guard our inclinations. In the court, truth is ever challenged. The proof is chosen and deselected. As disputants, our solitary desire is to be decided in a positive light. We are there to win.

 

Is our political framework very different? Constituent legislative issues, as an ongoing President put it, is no “round of bean-sack.” Most of us have come to acknowledge the possibility that government officials are going to slight each other. Decisions are events for crazy cases, inert gloats, and contemptible ambushes. Mud is tossed. Some of it sticks. When chosen, our side must indict its own point of view. Helping out the foe, in any event, tuning in to them genuinely, is taboo.

 

Our instruction framework comparatively prizes independence. We all are there to get our own degrees and push ahead with our own lives. Evaluations are an individual issue; papers and tests should communicate that. Gathering study, mentoring, and so forth are acknowledged; so are joint introductions. Yet, on the most significant occasions, it is the person’s abilities and information both probably exclusive issues that are estimated. (more…)

Most Common Advice is Ineffective

  
Analysis, Education
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“Plan the trade, and trade the plan!” is perhaps the most common advice given to traders. As far as advice goes, it’s well meaning, but unfortunately falls well short of addressing the problem most traders actually face. 

Looking at the advice, it has two parts. The first part says you need a plan. No argument there. But the second part, about executing the plan, that’s where the problems appear. Why?

The two parts to the advice ‘plan the trade’ and the ‘trade the plan’ require two very different skill sets. Without understanding the different skills required, it’s highly likely that you will continue to regularly veer from your plan.

Here’s the disconnect. Planning the trade depends on your intellect. And most of the time, the development of the plan does not occur in the heat of battle.  It’s relatively easily to let your intellect guide you, to be the primary driver when you’re not in the heat of battle. But in the heat of battle, when we have to decide right now whether to enter or exit, an entirely different situation occurs.

At the time of execution, no longer are we cool, calm, and collected. Now, a whole slew of things enters the picture – and many of these things are subconscious to a degree. Our feelings about our P&L, our feelings about our performance, or concerns about how we appear in the eyes of others, etc.

And no matter how smart you are, how much you believe you are not an ‘emotional person’, modern brain science is telling us emotions, including subconscious emotions, are very much a part of our decision making that leads to actions whether we realize it or not. Viewed this way, you can see why the typical advice to ‘plan the trade and trade the plan’ may be well intentioned, but ineffective.

True Nature Of Predicting

  
  Education
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Here’s how it works.

If I make an outrageous prediction or label a prediction outrageous and I am wrong, I respond to criticism like this:

“Well, I said it was an outrageous prediction.”

This discounts my responsibility for being wrong to some degree. But if I am right, I will say,

“look how brilliant I am. I made an outrageous prediction and it was dead on.”

Outrageous predictions are used to manage impressions. One defers responsibility if wrong and gloats incessantly if right.

It is a manipulative gambit.

People, who make outrageous predictions know exactly what they are doing. Their potential reward is much bigger than the risk they are taking of being publicly laughed at. Many people have made a career by being right once about a major event that nobody expected (usually a big market correction).

Predicting and speculating have a lot in common, but they are also very different. By definition, predictions are about dealing with factors, you have no control over. When you speculate in the stock market, you also don’t have control over which one of your trades will be profitable and for the most part how profitable it will be. You could improve the odds, but you can’t impact the outcome of each individual trade. When you speculate, you put your own money at risk. You could be right for the wrong reasons and make money (lucky). You could also be wrong despite having an edge and still lose money (no approach has 100% success rate). Since you have very little control on some of the variables that impact your results, it doesn’t really make sense to speculate about only one outcome, because in this case you are getting prepared for only one outcome. The solution – You develop several different scenarios and you prepare for each of them.

A) You could be wrong

  • where is your stop loss?
  • How much of your capital are you going to risk?

B) You could be right (more…)

Thought on Risk

  
  Education
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Risk ManagementRisk is a very negative word for many, but as a trader you have to face financial risk (even ruin for some kamikaze traders) every day. But to make a living trading stocks you have to face risk in a bold way. IMO, the greatest opportunity for success goes to those who are not afraid of taking risks and at the same time managing risk in a proper way (and knowing excessive risk may lead to total ruin). By that you have to analyze risk in accordance to potential reward and to feel a little bit of fear. Success may come to those without fear, but many of the fearless have fallen by the wayside (and we never hear about them).

Actually, the biggest risk is not taking any risk! If you want to make money trading, you have to take risk. There is no way you will make money by being risk-averse.

That also means not afraid of looking stupid. Remember that learning is inhibited by caution and experimentation. Children who are afraid will never learn. Children with totally risk-averse parents will struggle in an uncertain world.  Children are in general not afraid of looking stupid and they are therefore much more adaptive than adults. Just look at how easy they learn a new language. (more…)

Techniques to Control risk and Increase Safety

  
  Education
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  • Before taking a position, know the amount you are willing to lose. -Marty Schwartz
  • If a stock drops 7% below my purchase price, I will automatically sell at the market–no second guessing, no hesitation.  -William O’Neil
  • You should always have a worst case point.  The only choice should be to get out quicker. -Richard Dennis
  • I have a mental stop.  If it hits that number, I am out no matter what. -Paul Tudor Jones
  • Combine that long-term objective with a protective stop that you move as the position goes your way. -Gary Bielfeldt
  • I set protective stops at the same time I enter a trade.  I normally move these stops to lock in a profit as the trend continues.  -Ed Seykota
  • Risk management is the most important thing to be well understood.  Under-trade, under-trade, under-trade is my second piece of advice.  Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half.  My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. -Bruce Kovner
  • Why risk everything on one trade?  why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than a pursuit of pain? -Paul Tudor Jones
  • Never risk more than 1% of your total equity on any one trade.  By risking 1% I am indifferent to any individual trade.  Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical. -Larry Hite
  • The key is to lose the least amount of money when you are wrong. -William O’Neil
  • You have to minimize your losses and try to preserve capital for those few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time.  What you can’t afford to do is throw away your capital on suboptimal trades. -Richard Dennis
  • Most traders have a tendency to take risks that are too large at the beginning.  They tend not to be selective enough when they take risks. – Gary Bielfeldt
  • The object is always to minimize your risk. -Tom Baldwin
  • No matter what happens, I know my worst case.  My loss is always limited. -Tony Saliba
  • You might have a low-risk trade, but if you are afraid, you probably will not take it.

 

Best Practices for Traders

  
  Education
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5 Rules1) Preparation to start the day and week: Having a clearly formulated strategy to guide trading decisions;
2) Keeping score: Using a trading journal to structure learning, document progress, and sustain positive motivation;
3) Managing risk and maximizing opportunity: Trading with more risk/size when trading well and clearly seeing opportunity and pulling back risk when drawing down, trading poorly, and perceiving little opportunity;
4) Taking breaks: Stepping back from markets periodically to gain fresh perspective, reformulate views, and tweak strategies;
5) Treating trading as a business: Limiting overhead, having a clearly defined plan to move toward profitability, focusing on distinctive areas of strengths and opportunity.
So much of what makes traders great is what they do between market sessions, how they do it, and how much of it they do.
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One Liner For Traders

  
  Education
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Trade the market, not the money
• Always trade value, never trade price
• The answer to the question, “What’s the trend?” is the question, “What’s your timeframe?”
• Never allow a statistically significant unrealized gain to turn into a statistically significant realized loss (ATR)
• Don’t tug at green shoots
• When there’s nothing to do, do nothing
• Stop adjustments can only be used to reduce risk, not increase it.
• There are only two kinds of losses: big losses and small losses, given these choices – always choose small losses.
• Risk no more than 1% of AUM on any single position
• Never risk less than 1% of asset under management on any single position (as long as your models are performing well)
• Don’t Anticipate, Just Participate
• Buy the strongest, sell the weakest (RSI)
• Sideways markets eventually resolve themselves into trending markets and vice versa
• Stagger entries & exits – Regret Minimization techniques
• Look for low risk, high reward, high probability setups
• Correlations are for defense, not offense
• Drawdowns are for underleveraged trading and research
• Develop systems based on the kinds of “pain” (weaknesses) endured when they aren’t working or you’ll abandon them during drawdowns.
• Be disciplined in risk management & flexible in perceiving market behavior
• It’s not about the best RAROR, it’s about the best RAROR for your trading personality

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