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Trading Lessons From Nicolas Darvas

  • There are no good or bad stocks. There are only stocks that rise in price and stocks that decline in price, and that price is based on the laws of supply and demand in the marketplace
  • “You can never go broke taking a profit” is bad advice that will result in overtrading and cutting winners short. Selling winners and holding losers is to be avoided at all times
  • There is a “follow-the-leader” style in the market. You will find success by selecting the most active and strongest industry group and trading its top leader
  • The combination of price and increased volume is key to stock selection. Focus your time on new leaders emerging with a new market cycle
  • It is the anticipation of growth rather than the growth itself that leads to great profits in growth stocks. “You have to find out what the public wants and go along with it. You can’t fight the tape, or the public.”
  • One of the quickest ways to lose money in the market is to listen to others and all of their so-called expert opinions. To succeed, you must ignore all outside opinions and predictions. Follow your own strategy!
  • Losses are tuition on Wall Street. Learn from them.
  • You should expect to be wrong half of the time. Your goal is to lose as little as possible when you are. “I have no ego in the stock market. If I make a mistake I admit it immediately and get out fast. If you could play roulette with the assurance that whenever you bet $100 you could get out for $98 if you lost your bet, wouldn’t you call that good odds?”
  • Most of your big failures will come from three things: 1) when you abandon your rules, 2) you become overconfident, and 3) trade in despair when unsuccessful
  • The best speculators search only for the very best opportunities. To be truly successful, you must wait for the right opportunities to present themselves and this often means doing nothing for long periods of time
  • The market behaves the way it does due to participants behaving the way they do. No one knows what they will do until they actually do it
  • Long-term investors are the real gamblers in the market due to their eternal hope that losing stocks will come back in price
  • It is difficult to be profitable on the short side of the market versus the long side – trading in rising or bull markets will give you the best chance for success
  • Most, if not all stocks, will follow the general trend of the market
  • To train your emotions, write down the reasons for making every trade. When you lose, write down what you thought contributed to the loss. Then study and set new rules to avoid making those same mistakes
  • Concentrate your trades. At the peak of his success, Darvas would hold only 5 to 8 stocks at one time which was in contrast to his earlier days when he was overtrading and would hold up to 30 stocks at a time
  • Avoid fallen leaders. Overhead resistance will keep upside potential limited due to supply from previous buyers who had not cut short their losses. According to Darvas, the only sound reason for a stock is one that is rising in price. If that is not happening, then there is “no other reason worth considering.”
  • Darvas used his “box theory” to trade using boxes to time his entries (on breaking out to a new higher box) and exits (breaking below the current trading box).
  • For new trades, Darvas used “pilot buys” which basically were starter positions in stocks he liked. Only if the stock continued to move higher would he then pyramid and increase his position. He learned never to buy more of a losing position
  • He thought many unsuccessful investors made the mistake of looking at the same familiar names that might have worked well for them in the past instead of focusing on the next stock with the right elements for the new market cycle. “I am only in infant industries where earnings could double or triple. The biggest factor in stock prices is the lure of future earnings. The dream of the future is what excites people, not the reality.”
  • Perfection has no role in successful trading. No one can buy at the absolute lowest price and sell at the highest price. No time or effort should be devoted to that goal. “I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life. I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride.”
  • Trade only when the environment is in your favor. Darvas’ strategy kept him out of poor and bear markets because he wouldn’t trade stocks that didn’t fit his requirements which were only found in raging bull markets
  • Be aggressive when warranted. Darvas believed in making aggressive trades when his system pointed to a great trade. In fact, sometimes 50% of his capital was devoted to just one stock
  • While his trading approach was very technical, after studying the market’s winners he understood the relevance of finding stocks also with good fundamentals. Namely, Darvas thought that earnings and the future estimate of increased earnings were very important
  • Be a student of the market. Darvas learned by reading more than 200 books about speculators and the market and devoted studying the market for many hours a day. In fact, Gerald Loeb’s books & approach served as key inspiration
  • No one can completely master the market. After millions of dollars and best selling books, Darvas was still learning and tweaking his system until he passed away

Risking

Trading is all about riskcontrol !The following excerpt is from one of my favourite audiotapes ,’Risking ‘by David Viscount.I keep this on my desk to remind me each day to keep “risking.”Only a person who risks is truly free.

To laugh is to risk appearing the fool.

To weep is to risk appearing sentimental

To expose feelings is to risk exposing your true self.

To place your ideas ,your dreams ,before a crow is to risk their loss.

To live is to risk dying.To hope is to risk despair.To try is to risk failure.

But risks mist be taken ,because the greatest hazard in life is to risk nothing

The person ,who risks nothing ,does nothing ,has nothing ,and is nothing.

They may avoid suffering and sorrow ,but they cannot learn ,feel ,change ,grow ,love …live.

only a person who risks is free

Emotions & Trading

he hardest thing about trading is not the math, the method, or the stock picking. It is dealing with the emotions that arise with trading itself. From the stress of actually entering a trade, to the fear of losing the paper profits that you are holding in a winning trade,  there are many different types of stress. How you deal with those emotions will determine your success more than any one thing.

Here are some examples of emotional equations to better understand why you feel certain emotions strongly in your trading:

Losing Money and failing to learn to Trade Better results in Despair. 

Do not despair look at your losses as part of doing business and as paying tuition fees to the markets. If you are getting better at trading do not despair even if you are losing money.

When Expectations clash with Reality it causes Disappointment.

Enter trading with realistic expectations. You can realistically expect 20%-35% annual returns on capital with great trading. More than that is possible but unlikely. (more…)

Ten Trading Commandments

Respect the price action but never defer to it.

The action (or “eyes”) is a valuable tool when trading but if you defer to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down—and that’s a losing proposition. This is a particularly pertinent point as headlines of new highs serve as sexy sirens for those on the sidelines. 
Discipline trumps conviction.

No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and, above all, never believe that you’re smarter than the market. 
Opportunities are made up easier than losses. 
It’s not necessary to play every move, it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.
Emotion is the enemy when trading. 
Emotional decisions always have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision making process will be flawed. It’s that simple.  (more…)

Trader's Emotions

Despair = Losing Money – Trading Better

Do not despair look at your losses as part of doing business and as paying tuition fees to the markets.

Disappointment = Expectations – Reality

Enter trading with realistic expectations. You can realistically expect 20%-35% annual returns on capital with great trading. More than that is possible but unlikely.

Regret = Disappointment in a loss+ Caused by lack of Discipline

If you followed your trading plan and lose money because the market did not move in your direction so be it, but if you went off your plan and traded based on your feelings and opinions then you should feel regret and stop being undisciplined.

Enjoying your Trading = Winning Trades – Fear of Ruin

Trading is much more enjoyable when you are risking 1% of your capital in the hopes of making 3% on your capital with a zero chance of ruin. It is not enjoyable when you are putting a huge percentage of your capital on the line in each trade and are only a few bad trades away from your account going to zero.

Wisdom = Square Root of Experience through years of successful trading

To get good at trading you have to trade real money. Wisdom comes from putting real money on the line for years and proving to yourself that you can come out a winner in the long term.

Faith in your system = Belief through back testing + Experience of winning with it for years

While you have to hold the opinion of whether each trade is a winner or loser it is different for your trading method. A lot of emotional trading can be overcome when you do not have doubts about your method. When you hold an almost religious fervor over believing in your method, system, risk management, and your own discipline you will overcome many of the emotional problems that arise with other traders in the heat of action.

The Ten Trading Commandments

Respect the price action but never defer to it.

The action (or “eyes”) is a valuable tool when trading but if you defer to the flickering ticks, stocks would be “better” up and “worse” down—and that’s a losing proposition. This is a particularly pertinent point as headlines of new highs serve as sexy sirens for those on the sidelines. 
Discipline trumps conviction.

No matter how strongly you feel on a given position, you must defer to the principles of discipline when trading. Always try to define your risk and, above all, never believe that you’re smarter than the market. 
Opportunities are made up easier than losses. 
It’s not necessary to play every move, it’s only necessary to have a high winning percentage on the trades you choose to make. Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.
Emotion is the enemy when trading. 
Emotional decisions always have a way of coming back to haunt you. If you’re personally attached to a position, your decision making process will be flawed. It’s that simple. 
Zig when others Zag.

Sell hope, buy despair and take the other side of emotional disconnects in the context of controlled risk. If you can’t find the sheep in the herd, chances are that you’re it. 
Adapt your style to the market. (more…)

R.W. Schabacker, the financial editor of Forbes magazine, penned the following advice (warning) in 1934

No trader can ever expect to be correct in every one of his market transactions. No individual, however well he may be grounded, no matter how much experience he has had in practical market operation, can expect to be infallible. There will always be mistakes, some unwise judgments, some erroneous moves, some losses. The extent to which such losses materialize, to which they are allowed to become serious, will almost invariably determine whether the individual is to be successful in his long-range investing activities or whether such accumulated losses are finally to wreck him on the shoals of mental despair and financial tragedy.

THE TRUE TEST

It is easy enough to manage those commitments which progress smoothly and successfully to one’s anticipated goal. The true test of market success comes when the future movement is not in line with anticipated developments, when the trader is just plain wrong in his calculations, and when his investment begins to show a loss instead of a profit. If such situations are not properly handled, if one or two losing positions are allowed to get out of control, then they can wipe out a score of successful profits and leave the individual with a huge loss on balance. It is just as important-nay, even more important-to know when to dessert a bad bargain, take one’s loss and count it a day, as it is to know when to close out a successful transaction which has brought profit.

LIMITS ARE A MUST

The staggering catastrophes which ruin investors, mentally, morally, and financially, are not contingent upon the difference between a 5 percent loss limit and a 20 percent loss limit. They stem from not having established any limit at all on the possible loss. Any experienced market operator can tell you that his greatest losses have been taken by those, probably rare, instances when he substituted stubbornness for loss limitation, when he bought more of a stock which was going down, instead of selling some of it to lighten his risk, when he allowed pride of personal opinion to replace conservative faith in the cold judgment of the market place. (more…)

Does Religion Serve a Purpose?

This lecture by professor Paul Bloom of Yale starts with the observation that religion serves no obvious adaptive purpose. I find that a little surprising since it is well documented that people who have a make generally accurate appraisals of themselves and their environment are depressed (notice it is not clear which way causality runs). Since optimism is considered to be adaptive, and most religions have a point of view as to what death is all about and what if anything happens afterwards, I would think that giving people coping strategies about the inevitability of death would be adaptive. As I wrote last year:

In the Indian epic Mahabharata, Yudhisthira goes looking for his missing brothers, who went searching for water. He finds them all dead next to a pond. In despair, but still parched, he is about to drink, but a crane tells him he must answer some questions first. The last and most difficult: “What is the greatest wonder of the world?” Yudhisthira answers, “Day after day, hour after hour, countless people die, yet the living believe they will live forever.”

And as Americans have become more and more work focused, and as job tenures become shorter and people often have to move in search of gainful employment, the idea of community as a place seems quaint. As this video suggests, houses of worship may be the only place most people find community these days. I doubt that is a healthy development.

And this DOES relate to the Super Bowl! The Center for Public Religion has found that 1/3 of Americans think God decides the outcome of sporting events. He does not do so directly, by having favorite teams (too tacky!) but by favoring teams with more God-fearing athletes.