Archives of “Deception” tag

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Four headlines hit at virtually the same time to undercut sentiment

  
  Analysis
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Risk trades leg lower in a big way

Commodity currencies and stocks were caught in a quick downdraft after at least four headlines hit at virtually the same time:
  • Florida virus cases spike
  • Beijing moved to phase-2 containment on the latest virus outbreak, closing schools
  • Texas virus hospitalizations rose 8.3% to hit a record
  • Powell indicated that corporate bond buying probably won’t be aggressive and is more of a contingency
The S&P 500 is up just 0.45% after rising nearly 3% at the open.
Trump rant about Powell incoming…

Cruise ship booking firm sees 40% increase in its 2021 bookings compared to 2019

  
  Analysis
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Virus, what virus? Check this story out on cruise bookings.

  • bookings for cruises are already on the rise of 2021, according to multiple reports
  • In the past 45 days cruise booking site CruiseCompete.com saw a 40% increase in its bookings for 2021 over its 2019 bookings
  • A recent report from UBS also found that 76% of the people who had a cancelled cruise in 2020 have chosen to accept credit towards a future cruise in 2021 as opposed to 24% who accepted a refund.
Here is the link for more. Amazing.
Virus, what virus? Check this story out on cruise bookings. 

Risk remains softer ahead of European trading

  
  Analysis
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Virus worries weigh on the market but Chinese stocks are still rallying

USGG10YR

Treasury yields are lower across the curve with 10-year yields back under 1.50%, slipping to its lowest levels since September last year as the market is leaning towards being more risk averse ahead of European trading today.
In turn, gold is breaking out in a strong way with price near the highs now around $1,628 with the currencies space also reflecting softer risk flows.
The aussie and kiwi are weighed lower with the franc among the better performers, despite narrower trading for the time being. USD/JPY is also seeing a bit of a pullback under 112.00 for now, so perhaps are we seeing a return to the norm for the yen?
Despite the negativity, Chinese stocks are continuing to rally as authorities prop up the equities market with more and more stimulus measures. The run just keeps going.
SHCOMP
It’ll be interesting to see if Wall Street can turn things around later today, but with PMI readings in the European morning likely to reaffirm worries about global growth, I reckon we may be set for a more risk averse period before the weekend this time around.

Beijing cancels large-scale Chinese New Year celebrations due to new coronavirus outbreak

  
  Analysis
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China continues to take steps to contain the virus from spreading

Beijing just announced that they will be cancelling all major events, including the Chinese New Year celebrations because of the new coronavirus outbreak.

It is a wise move in an effort to keep the situation from potentially getting worse but it will dampen the mood ahead of the holiday period for Chinese citizens.

Fed’s Beige Book: Economy expanded at slight-to-modest pace

  
  Analysis
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Highlights of the Fed’s anecdotal economic summary:

That’s a downgrade from modest previously.
Highlights:
  • Businesses see expansion continuing, many have cut outlook
  • Business activity varied across the country
  • Districts in south and west were more upbeat that midwest and great plains
  • Spending was solid on balance, housing market conditions changed little
  • Some districts suggested persistent trade tensions and slower global growth weighed on activity; early impact of GM strike was limited
  • Most expect economic expansion to continue; however many lowered their outlooks for growth in coming 6-12 months
  • A number of manufacturers reduced headcount because orders were soft, some cut hours rather than reduce staff
  • Wages rose moderately in most districts, with upwards pressure noted for lower-skill workers
  • Employers continued to use bonuses and benefits to attract and retain talent
  • Most districts characterized the recent pace of prices increases as modest
  • Retailers and manufacturers noted rising input costs
  • Shipping rates remained lower than they were earlier in the year because of excess capacity

Trump says Iran asked him to lift sanctions in order to meet, he said no

  
Analysis, Politics
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The Iran side wasn’t bluffing

That’s what they said all along.
All the talk about a meeting was truly much ado about nothing.
What’s surprised me in Trump’s presidency is what world leaders will give up just for a meeting. In the infamous call with Ukraine’s leader, all the back channels were about securing a move on the prosecutor before a call. Then on the call, Trump wanted more in order to meet. What’s so great about meeting the President?
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