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The Blind Traders and the Market

blind-men

There is an old parable known as “the blind men and the elephant.”  In this story, there are four blind men who are asked to determine what an elephant looks like.  The first blind man feels the leg of the elephant and says, “The elephant is like a tree because it is large and round like a pillar.”  The second man feels the tail and says, “The elephant is like a rope because it is small and coarse.”  The third man feels the ear and says, “The elephant is like a fan because it is flat and thin.”  The fourth man feels the trunk and says, “The elephant is like a snake because it is long and curves.” 

A king comes to the four blind men and says, “all of you are correct.”  The king goes on to explain that each one had drastically different descriptions of the elephant because they are all feeling different parts.  So, they are all correct.  The elephant has all the features described by the four blind men.

This parable is a good analogy describing different types of profitable traders. Many of the arguments that erupt between traders on social media are due to not understanding the others  time frames or not understanding the other trader’s position sizing, stop loss level, or expected winning percentage. Also too many cult members of Elliot Wave, Trend Following, Market Profile, Day Traders, and option traders etc. think their way of trading price action is the only way when their way is only one of many paths to profitability. There are as many ways to trade price action to be profitable as there are profitable traders.

The elephant in the room is that profitable traders do a few things in common: (more…)

7 Trading Wisdom of Paul Tudor Jones

paultudorDon’t ever average losers.”

When a trade is going against you it means you are wrong. Adding to a loser just usually makes it bigger and your stress overwhelming.

“Never trade in situations where you don’t have control.”

Getting into a trade that you can’t easily get out of is a dangerous trade in itself. Liquidity risk, headline risk, and volatility can be dangerous when you are at their mercy.

“If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple, Get out.”

Many times exiting a trade is the easiest way to stop a losing trade from getting worse, managing stress, or freeing up capital for other uses. You can always get back in.

“Don’t be too concerned about where you got into a position.”

All that matters about your current positions is what you should do now based on the current price action not your cost basis or entry level. (more…)