rss

The Psychology Of Speculation – The Disconcerting Effect Of Sudden Losses And Gains

Henry Howard Harper: ‘The Psychology of Speculation – The Human Element in Stock Market Transactions’

The Disconcerting Effect of Sudden Losses and Gains, page 17 – 19

There are but few things more unbalancing to the mind than the act of suddenly winning or losing large sums of money. A few years ago at Monte Carlo I was in company with a friend, a well known man of affairs who while there played at roulette nearly every day, merely as pastime. He was of mature age, naturally methodical, conservative, temperate and cool-headed. He made it an unalterable rule to limit his losses to $200 at any one sitting, and on losing his amount he always stopped playing. His bets were usually limited to two dollars on the numbers, and never doubled except for one turn of the wheel when his number won. He generally played three numbers at a time; never more than four. For ten consecutive sittings luck was against him and each time he had lost his stake of $200. I saw him get up and leave the room, apparently in a state of disgust. An hour or so later I discovered him at a roulette table in another room stacking his chips in piles on a dozen or more numbers. (more…)

John Bogle’s 10 Rules of Investing

“1. Remember reversion to the mean. What’s hot today isn’t likely to be hot tomorrow. The stock market reverts to fundamental returns over the long run. Don’t follow the herd.

2. Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. Take advantage of compound interest and don’t be captivated by the siren song of the market. That only seduces you into buying after stocks have soared and selling after they plunge.

3. Buy right and hold tight. Once you set your asset allocation, stick to it no matter how greedy or scared you become.

4. Have realistic expectations. You are unlikely to get rich quickly. Bogle thinks a 7.5 percent annual return for stocks and a 3.5 percent annual return for bonds is reasonable in the long-run.

5. Forget the needle, buy the haystack. Buy the whole market and you can eliminate stock risk, style risk, and manager risk.

6. Minimize the “croupier’s” take. Beating the stock market and the casino are both zero-sum games, before costs. You get what you don’t pay for. (more…)