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Japan press – “Abenomics here to stay”

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

  • the end of an era for Japanese politics
Abe will not be taking Abenomics with him though, Japan Times:
  • economists say Japan’s next leader will likely maintain he basic Abenomics framework
  • “For sure, markets will be watching the continuity. I think many are assuming that things won’t change a lot, but the new prime minister will need to clearly explain that,” said Daiju Aoki, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management Japan.
Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities:
  • “The government will need to continue to deal with the pandemic and do what’s necessary to contain it while limiting the economic damage … whoever becomes the prime minister, he or she will have to face the same issue and take the same necessary steps” 
ps. Much of Abenomics boiled down to massive policy easing from the BOJ. This is not gonna change any time soon.
Abe was PM from 2006 to 2007 and then again since 2012. He will step down on or around September 15.  He is the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history. Get well soon, and enjoy your retirement sir!

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

France’s health ministry says the “exponential” rise in new coronavirus cases is “very worrying”

Eyes on France where Friday saw 7000+ new confirmed COVID-19 cases and Saturday 5,000+

The health ministry says:

  • “In mainland France, the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic is exponential. The strong growth dynamics of transmission is very worrying,” 
Via Reuters
On Friday compulsory mask-wearing was introduced to Paris. Efforts are being made to avoid another harsh economic lockdown.
Eyes on France where Friday saw 7000+ new confirmed COVID-19 cases and Saturday 5,000+

Trump to announce a $750m deal to buy 150m rapid Covid-19 tests from Abbott Labs

White House senior adviser Alyssa Farah:
  • “This is a major development that will help our country to remain open, get Americans back to work and kids back to school”
No schedule has been set for Trump’s announcement.
Abbott said it plans to ship tens of millions of the tests in September
expects to increase production to 50 million tests in October
Thursday in Asia time brought news of the rapid test receiving approval:

US initial jobless claims 1006K vs 1000K estimate

US initial jobless claims and continuing claims

  • initial jobless claims 1006K vs 1000K estimate
  • jobless claims four-week average 1068K vs 1175.25K last week
  • continuing jobless claims 14535K vs 14400K estimate
  • continuing claims four-week average 15215K vs 15819.75 last week
Initial jobless claimsThe claims data continues to disappoint with the weekly numbers back above 1 million for the 2nd week in a row after dipping below for one week early in August (to 971).
Continuing claims also was slightly higher than expectations. Nevertheless it was still lower vs. the last week’s revised 14758K number.

US Q2 GDP second reading -31.7% vs -32.5% expected

The second reading on Q2 gross domestic product

US GDP second reading Q2 2020
  • The first estimate was -32.9%
  • Q1 was -2.5%
  • Final sales -28.5% vs -29.3% prelim
  • Business investment -26.0% vs -27.0% prelim
  • Consumer spending -34.1% vs -34.6% prelim
  • Exports -63.2% vs -64.1% prelim
  • Imports -54.0% vs -53.4% prelim
  • Inventory change -$286.4B vs -$315.5B prelim
  • GDP deflator -2.3% vs -2.0% expected
  • Full release
Despite the headline, there’s more good news here than bad. The revision higher in inventories means that inventory rebuilding will be less of a tailwind in Q3 and Q4 than anticipated. The drop in inflation also added to real GDP.
“In the second estimate, real GDP decreased 31.7 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the previous estimate issued last month. The revision primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and PCE,” the BEA said in the release.

Coronavirus – Abbott launches a $5 Covid-19 test, 15 min turnaround. No lab required.

This is the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card test

  • The test delivers results in just 15 minutes
  • no instrumentation required
The firm cite:
  • demonstrated sensitivity of 97.1% and specificity of 98.5% in clinical study
  • Company will ship tens of millions of tests in September, ramping to 50 million tests a month at the beginning of October
Note – not a vaccine, not a cure, not palliative. ‘Just’ a test.
But, rapid testing can enhance detection and subsequent isolation and help inprove the ‘R’ number (get it lower). So it is significant.
ps. This new test has been in the news, so its not a ‘breaking’ development.
This is the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card test

Laura expected to make landfall in about 12 hours as Category 4 hurricane

The latest from the NHC forecast

The latest from the NHC forecast on Laura
The US National Hurricane Center is out with its latest update on Hurricane Laura and it’s not good.
Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical wind shear remains low. Laura’s intensity could level-off by this evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall. Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast.
This has the potential to be especially devastating for the oil & gas industry and its workers. The current track takes the eye through or near Beaumont, TX or Lake Charles, LA. Both are massive US refining hubs. The Houston area will also be hit but it now looks like the worst of the storm will pass to the east of it.
Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds in the 209-251 km/h range, or 130-156 mph. Storm surges are generally 13-18 feet but can be as much as 24 feet. The NHC says the storm surge from Laura could penetrate 30 miles inland.
A recent Category 4 storm was Hurricane Harvey in 2017. It inflicted an estimated $125B in damage as it first made landfall near Corpus Christi and then raked the coast, causing widespread flooding in Houston. It matched Katrina as the most-costly US hurricane.
This storm appears to be faster moving so flood damage may not be as high but wind damage could be worse. It will also then cut across the mid-Atlantic states and could reform as a tropical storm off the coast of North Carolina or Virginia.

US election Joe Biden says ‘No new taxes’ for anyone making less than $400,000

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden interview in US media (ABC)

  • “I will raise taxes for anybody making over $400,000”
  • “no new taxes” would be raised for anyone making under $400,000
We should begin to get policy announcements such as this in coming weeks.

Link here to the report for more
Biden and Harris:
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden interview in US media (ABC)

Weekend reports that North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un in a coma

Earlier this year there all sorts of reports of his illness, but he popped back up again apparently in good health.

Now this:
  • in a coma
  • a former South Korean official is claiming (Chang Song-min, a former aide to late-South Korean president Kim Dae-jung)
  • reports his power has been ceded to his younger sister
Earlier this year there all sorts of reports of his illness, but he popped back up again apparently in good health.

China health official says China has officially launched emergency use of COVID19 vaccines

Coronavirus weekend news – Chinese media, Global Times, reports via Twitter that an official at the country’s National Health Commission:

  • says China has officially launched emergency use of a vaccine
  • the vaccine has been in clinical trial since July 22
GT also report on a more than 20,000 person phase III clinical trial in the UAE of Sinopharm’s COVID19 vaccine
  • has shown a high level of safety
  • efficacy is currently under observation
Coronavirus weekend news - Chinese media, Global Times, reports via Twitter that an official at the country's National Health Commission:
Both of the GT items are tweets only, not accompanied by further articles for more information.
There is one more that is accompanied by an article – saying that China’s first recombinant protein COVID-19 vaccine made from insect cells has been approved for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration.
  • vaccine is being developed by the State Key Laboratory of Biological Therapy of Sichuan University affiliated West China Hospital
  • vaccine uses insect cells to multiply in the culture medium and introduces the gene of COVID-19 into insect cells, which means the cell can be used as a factory to produce high-quality recombinant vaccine proteins and purify them for refinement.
  • vaccine was tested on monkeys and other animals, and was found to have a good protective effect against COVID-19 infection, with no obvious side effects
Given the history of how markets view vaccine news (generally positively) this threefer from the GT might be a boost for sentiment on Monday. There is still plenty of time left over the weekend for less than favourable stories to develop, stay tuned.