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How Stress Produces Trading Losses

  • Nothing is stressful unless it is perceived as being a thread (losing money)
  •  Worry has a great effect on human performance, because it represents conscious mental activity.  Since it is conscious, it takes up processing capacity.
  • Often, the trader is too preoccupied with the potential results of what he id doing, rather than the process of being a trader.
    1. Losses scare me. The model calms me.  Trade your plan.
    2. Concerned about losses.  Preoccupation. Tunnel vision
    3. View losses as negative because fear of not having money.  A loss is a character building exercise that is needed to go through to obtain positive expectancy.
    4. Low Volatility/High Volatility  Multiple Intra-weekly signals
    5. Close at a profit/Close at stop
    6. Nightly distractions (Family, Businesses, Work, Vacation, Lack of Internet)
    7. Greed leads to confirmation bias, other bias in holding position
    8. Money motivated, need results for success, freedom for family
    9. Need to evaluate relationships with parents/money deeper to get to depths of self-esteem
    10. Tasks
      1. Daily Self-Analysis
      2. Daily Mental Rehearsal
      3. Focus and Intention
      4. Developing a Low-Risk Idea
      5. Stalking
      6. Action
      7. Monitoring
      8. Take Profits/Abort
      9. Daily Debriefing
      10. Be Grateful for What Went Right
      11. Periodic Review

How Stress Produces Trading Losses

  • Nothing is stressful unless it is perceived as being a thread (losing money)
  •  Worry has a great effect on human performance, because it represents conscious mental activity.  Since it is conscious, it takes up processing capacity.
  • Often, the trader is too preoccupied with the potential results of what he id doing, rather than the process of being a trader.
    1. Losses scare me. The model calms me.  Trade your plan.
    2. Concerned about losses.  Preoccupation. Tunnel vision
    3. View losses as negative because fear of not having money.  A loss is a character building exercise that is needed to go through to obtain positive expectancy.
    4. Low Volatility/High Volatility  Multiple Intra-weekly signals
    5. Close at a profit/Close at stop
    6. Nightly distractions (Family, Businesses, Work, Vacation, Lack of Internet)
    7. Greed leads to confirmation bias, other bias in holding position
    8. Money motivated, need results for success, freedom for family
    9. Need to evaluate relationships with parents/money deeper to get to depths of self-esteem
    10. Tasks
      1. Daily Self-Analysis
      2. Daily Mental Rehearsal
      3. Focus and Intention
      4. Developing a Low-Risk Idea
      5. Stalking
      6. Action
      7. Monitoring
      8. Take Profits/Abort
      9. Daily Debriefing
      10. Be Grateful for What Went Right
      11. Periodic Review

Good risk management combines several elements

1. Clarifying trading and risk management systems until they can translate to computer code.

2. Inclusion of diversification and instrument selection into the back-testing process.

3. Back-testing and stress-testing to determine trading parameter sensitivity and optimal values.

4. Clear agreement of all parties on expectation of volatility and return.

5. Maintenance of supportive relationships between investors and managers.

6. Above all, stick to the system.

7. See #6, above.

The Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System Toolbox -George Pruitt :Book Review

I am in the process of learning to code in Python and am, I must admit, no programming genius. So I was delighted to see that George Pruitt, best known for his book on TradeStation’s EasyLanguage (Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation) had written a new book that covered not only the TradeStation platform but also AmiBroker, Excel (with VBA), and Python. The Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System Toolbox: Using Today’s Technology to Help You Become a Better Trader (Wiley, 2016) is a how-to manual for the non-quant who wants to incorporate algorithms into his trading.
Pruitt’s focus in this book is not so much on system development per se as it is on popular programming tools for building and back testing technical trading systems. Yes, he has chapters on “Genetic Optimization, Walk Forward, and Monte Carlo Start Trade Analysis” and “An Introduction to Portfolio Maestro, Money Management, and Portfolio Analysis,” but what will most likely draw traders to Pruitt’s book is his extensive array of clearly explained sample code. (more…)