Archives of “China–United States trade war” tag

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Navarro is now walking back his ‘its over’ comments!

  
  Analysis
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White House Trade Adviser Navarro is now speaking with the Wall Street Journal denying the trade deal with China is over.

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Earlier:
  • Peter Navarro declares trade deal with China is over
  • Risk trades getting smashed on the Navarro comments that trade deal with China is over
  • More on White House trade adviser Navarro announcing the trade deal with China is over

Now this:

  • Navarro tells the WSJ his comment about China trade being “over” not as seems.
  • Says he was trying to make broader point about “trust.”
  • ‘Its over’ was not about the phase 1 deal, that remains in place
OK, so the lack of comment from Trump was the tell – Navarro was wrong to say what he did. This is an epic f*ck up from Navarro. Says he was making a point about trust … what, not to trust a thing this idiot says?
Still, if you caught some of the moves its all good!

Global stock market rally has further to run in 2020 – Reuters poll

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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But much depends on the US-China trade war still

Poll

The bias has turned more favourable in the most recent poll with a slim majority of respondents (53/102) viewing that risks to the outlook are now skewed more to the upside.

In comparison, just three months ago, a clear majority of respondents (69/97) viewed that risks to the outlook were skewed more to the downside instead.
A lot of this of course owes to the more optimistic US-China trade rhetoric, as both countries look to move closer towards a trade truce by the end of this year.
Among those who answered an additional question in the poll, 50 respondents said the bull run in the stock market will end within a year with 40 respondents saying that it would within the next two years.
That shows that sentiment is leaning more towards the bull run still going strong although I reckon its strength may not be as what we are seeing this year.
I mean with stretched valuations, flagging global growth and more political uncertainty i.e. US elections all at play next year, the S&P 500 may find it tough to post another 25% year like this one and so will its peers.

A look at the US-China trade war and its impact on markets

  
  Analysis
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The impact escalation will have

The impact escalation will haveThe focus of the market on the China-US trade war is acute due to China’s and the United States economic weight. In 2018 the US’s GDP was above $20 trillion and China’s GDP over $14 trillion, which makes them the world’s two largest economies by nominal GDP.

Furthermore, consider that when you add these two countries GDP together, they account for more than 40% of the world’s entire GDP. So, the first point to grasp is that the significance of a US-China trade war is really a global growth problem.

When you factor in the alliances and trade partners of both countries, the legitimate concern is that a China-US trade war spills over across the entire globe and slows down the entire world economy.

Trade between the US and China

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Fitch reports on Chinese tariffs impacting US agriculture

  
  Analysis
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Chinese tariffs stinging farmers

Chinese tariffs stinging farmers
  • Chinese tariffs on US agricultural imports escalate trade related risks to US farm sector , which is experiencing falling sales and land values
  • Ongoing trade wars impact equipment loan and lease ABS collateral performance
  • Ongoing trade wars have placed greater pressure on already stressed US agricultural sector
Biting tariffs will get Trump to the dealing table quicker than anything else, I would say. He won’t want to see tariffs stinging the US.

US imposes new China tariffs, raising levies to pre-WWII level

  
  Analysis
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The U.S. slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese goods on Sunday to bring the average to more than 20%, comparable with levels seen during the protectionist era preceding World War II.

At 12:01 a.m. EDT, the U.S. imposed additional tariffs of 15% on about $110 billion in imports from China, covering 3,243 items. Consumer goods account for about half — far more than the 20%-plus of the previous round last September, which included such products as furniture. China’s corresponding tariffs against U.S. products took effect at the same time.

U.S. President Donald Trump postponed tariffs on 555 items on the original list — including smartphones — until Dec. 15 to soften the impact on the year-end shopping season. More than 80% of American imports of these goods come from China, and finding alternative sources is difficult. Higher tariffs are likely to lead to price increases, which risk weighing on consumer spending and thus the broader economy.

Digital consumer devices such as smartwatches are among the largest import categories by value affected by Sunday’s tariffs. More than half of all apparel is taxed as well.

China is retaliating with additional duties of 5% to 10% on $75 billion in imports from the U.S. The first tranche covers 1,717 goods including soybeans and crude oil, while the second set being implemented Dec. 15 will cover 3,361 items including autos.

But all told, fewer than 1,800 of these items — only about 35%, including crude oil — are new additions. Most have already been hit by previous rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs.

Beijing has already imposed tariffs on about 70% of its imports from the U.S. by value, and after these rounds, the only items left untouched will be those that it would be disadvantageous to domestic industry to tax, such as large aircraft. Previous tariff rounds have already led to sharp declines in imports of affected goods, and further hikes are unlikely to have much of an effect.

With the September duties, the average American tariff on Chinese goods rises to slightly above 21%, up from about 3% before the trade war, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. China’s average tariff on imports from the U.S. climbs to nearly 22%. (more…)

USTR publishes full list of delayed tariffs. All cell phones included

  
  Analysis
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USTR publishes which tariffs to go into effect Dec 15

The US delayed all tariffs on cell phones until December 15, according to lists of tariffs just published.
Here is the Sept 1 list. Here is the Dec 15 list.
The initial statement wasn’t entirely clear but the list shows that all cell phone tariffs are delayed until Dec 15.
Aside from that, there are 1000s of items on each list. I guess the lists show who has the better lobbyists, and which parts of the economy/market the White House didn’t want to hurt.

Chinese companies looking to buy U.S. farm products -Xinhua

  
Analysis, Politics
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Some Chinese companies are seeking new purchases of U.S. agricultural products, China’s official Xinhua News Agency said on Sunday, citing authorities, as Beijing and Washington look for ways to end a protracted trade war.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at last month’s G-20 summit in Osaka to restart trade talks that stalled in May.

Trump said at the time he would not impose new tariffs and U.S. officials said China agreed to make agricultural purchases. But Trump said on July 11 that China was not living up to promises to buy U.S. farm goods.

Chinese businesses have made inquiries with U.S. exporters to buy crops and agricultural products and applied for the lifting of tariffs, Xinhua said, citing Chinese authorities. China’s Customs Tariff Commission will arrange for experts to appraise the Chinese companies’ tariff exclusion applications, Xinhua said.

“Relevant Chinese departments expressed hope that the United States would meet China halfway, and earnestly implement the United States’ relevant promises,” the news agency said, without elaborating.

The world’s two largest economies have been embroiled in a tariff battle since July 2018, as the United States presses China to address what it sees as decades of unfair and illegal trading practices. (more…)

Beijing says US will not impose new tariffs on China exports

  
  Analysis
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The U.S. will not levy new tariffs on Chinese exports, Chinese state media said after bilateral talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka.

The world’s two biggest economies have agreed to restart trade talks, Xinhua news said, adding that the two sides will have discussions on “specific” issues.

The two leaders met for the first time in nearly seven months on Saturday, again on the sidelines of a global meeting, in an attempt to turn the heat down on a boiling trade war.

Trump is angry at the trade imbalance between the two countries, and has imposed rounds of tariffs on goods the U.S. imports from China. China retaliated by raising tariffs.

As the bilateral meeting began, Xi said he is prepared to exchange his thoughts and that he hopes to set the direction of China-U.S. relations “based on coordination, cooperation and stability.”

He added, “cooperation and dialogue are better than friction and confrontation.”

Trump responded by saying, “It would be historic if we can do a fair trade deal.”

“This could be a very productive meeting,” he said. (more…)

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