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How do *your* coping efforts work for you?

  
  Education
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How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.

The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.

Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.

Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.Take a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?

Three Blind Men And The Markets

  
  Education
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elephant-3

A Hindu folktale tells of three blind men encountering an elephant. “It’s a tree,” says one, stroking a leg. “No, no, it’s a snake,” says  another, feeling the trunk. “No, this must be a house,” insists a third, spreading his arms against the bulk of the elephant’s body.
 All three had a different perception of the elephant based on the part they examined, and all three conclusions were wrong. The elephant was larger and more complex than any of the men realized.
 A similar tale is told everyday in the market. Each market participant has different needs, agendas, histories, perceptions, and sees the market completely differently. As with the three blind men examining the elephant: (more…)

Latest Headlines From Europe

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Time for European headlines. Because we haven’t had any in about 3 minutes or so. Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is Angela Merkel doing her best channeling of Hank Paulson.

  • MERKEL SPEAKS AT TRICHET FAREWELL IN FRANKFURT
  • MERKEL SAYS EURO IS STABLE, HAS PROVED ITSELF IN TURBULENT TIME
  • MERKEL SAYS IF THE EURO FAILS, EUROPE FAILS
  • MERKEL SAYS EUROPE STANDS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES
  • MERKEL SAYS EUROPE MUST BE READY TO USE UNCONVENTIONAL TOOLS
  • MERKEL SAYS ‘WE SHALL NOT ALLOW’ EURO TO FAIL
  • MERKEL SAYS NEXT EU SUMMIT IS `NOT THE END POINT’ FOR CRISIS

And most importantly…

  • MERKEL SAYS NO ‘MAGIC WAND’ TO SOLVE EURO DEBT CRISIS
  • MERKEL SAYS PAST ERRORS WILL NOT BE SOLVED IN ONE STROKE

True, many, many strokes will be needed. But what about the market which has already priced in not only the Magic Wand but the Quidditch match victory over Slitherin. What now?

Enthusiasm Brings About A Triumph

  
  Education
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The greatest victories in life rarely come from those who are sad, pessimistic or lacking enthusiasm.
When we approach challenges in any area with enthusiasm, we set a new foundation that starts us off on the right foot. This does not automatically happen. We all need to decide that we are going to start changing the way we begin our trading sessions.
Before we jump on our computer and look at our charts and start executing trades, take about 15 minutes to set the tone for this session. Take a few deep breaths, forget about the list of tasks that you have to deal with today, get a piece of paper and write down 1 or 2 items that you will focus on during today’s trades.
Once you have your mind set and your 2 items ready; say out loud “I am ready to trade”. Say this with enthusiasm and then sit down and begin.
You will have a new perspective on today which does not include focusing on the profit results, but instead on the process. Your trading session will have new meaning and you are now set to be triumphant in today’s trades.

Dangers detailed for banks in Europe

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Despite recent improvements in the health of European banks, they remain vulnerable to a daunting array of hazards that are expected to produce another round of sizable write-offs in the next couple of years, the European Central Bank said.

Its report cataloged in detail the problems facing the region’s financial institutions.

The challenges for banks in the 16-nation euro zone include exposure to a weakening commercial real estate market, hundreds of billions of euros in bad debts, economic problems in East European countries, and a potential collision between the banks’ own substantial refinancing needs and government demand for additional loans, the central bank said.

In its twice-yearly review of risks facing the nations that use the euro currency, the central bank expressed particular concern about banks’ need to refinance long-term debt of an estimated 800 billion euros, or $984 billion, by the end of 2012.

European banks will need to set aside an estimated 123 billion euros in 2010 for bad loans, and an additional 105 billion euros in 2011, the report said. That would be in addition to the 238 billion euros they set aside from 2007 to 2009.

How full is your cup?

  
  Education
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I stumbled across an interesting article recently, about ‘Market Timing’.  We can all relate to spending hours on trying to pick the trough or top of a market cycle, or congratulate ourselves on getting in at the bottom and riding a sp to its peak.

This article goes on to explain that Market Timing is perhaps not that important, it all comes down to the individual’s mind-set around wealth. 

“You have probably seen this phenomenon: there are successful investors that can make money regardless of the market conditions. They make good money during good times, and they make even better money during bad times.

To these successful investors, there is one thing that is constant: they make money regardless of changes in the market. Market Timing seems to have very little effect on them.

You have probably also seen the opposite phenomenon: there are investors that would lose money even when the market was doing great. These investors lose money during good times, and lose even more money during bad times.

To these unsuccessful investors, there is one thing that is constant: they lose money regardless of changes in the market. Market Timing also seems to have very little effect on them. “

Hmm, now there’s something to think about.  Imagine having the good fortune to enter the market at ANY time and still make money. 

The author goes on to get you to think of money as water and it seems that some people have a fixed sized cup to hold money – whenever they get near the cups maximum threshold one of life’s challenges comes along to ensure their cup never overflows.

So what we NEED to do, is to consciously make an effort to increase the size of our cup (the invisible mental capacity for wealth), and then we won’t really need to worry about Market Timing at all!

Sounds like a plan to me – I’ll order a beer stein.

5 Principles of Leadership and Trading

  
  Education
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What are these principles?

  1. Knowing why you are in the trading business

You can start by asking yourself:

    • Why are you in the trading business?
    • What was your initial attraction to trading?
    • Are you thinking about it as a business or a hobby?
    • Are you passionate about your trading?
    • Does trading feel like a lot of work?
    • What are your trading goals?
    • Are you enjoying the journey or just focusing on the end result?
    • What do you want to get out of trading?
      • Money
      • Excitement
      • Challenge
      • Power
      • Other things (more…)

    How do *your* coping efforts work for you?

      
      Education
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    Take a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?

    How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.

    The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.

    Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.

    Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.

    "Maintaining Sanity in a Schizophrenic Market"

      
      Education
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    The current market seems to be manic depressive without even a shred of memory from one day to the next.  How does a trader preserve control and commitment when faced with this challenge?

    I think the first place to begin is with the questions we ask ourselves.  Is there an opportunity here? Where is the opportunity now?  How can I take advantage of this opportunity?

    Then ask yourself, how do I deal with the volatility?  Do I decrease size and stretch out the risk parameters?  Do I increase size to take advantage of this extraordinary opportunity?  Do I shorten or increase my time frames to increase my safety and profitability?  As traders we are always faced with the dual needs to seize a significant opportunity and to preserve our capital.  This balancing act is at the core of trading.

    Of course, you need to address the underlying fundamentals.   What are they? Are they becoming more so or less so?  Are they changing or remaining the same?

    Define the problems you are facing and redefine them.  Einstein was asked how he would go about solving a problem if he only had 60 minutes in which to solve it.  He answered that he would spend the first 59 minutes defining the problem.  Once you’ve identified and defined the issues you’re facing, look for workable solutions.  See problems as challenges not as threats.  I always assume if there is a problem, there is a solution.  Once you’ve found a solution, test it.

    You need to sustain an optimistic outlook.  This means not taking market conditions personally.  Know that the difficulties will pass as well as the opportunities.  You can learn from difficulties and let them go even as you learn from and utilize opportunities.  Keep honing your skills and see the glass as more than half full.  You can heal your trading by finding a way to understand evil even as you find a way to make the best of a situation.  Any crisis can make you stronger if you don’t let it make you weaker.

    So let’s go back to the original question.  Where is the opportunity here and now, and how do you go about taking full advantage of it?  When you find it, go for it.  If you don’t find it, wait for it to develop, and carpe diem (seize the day).

    How do *your* coping efforts work for you?

      
      Education
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    effortTake a look at how well you trade after a position has gone against you. Do you trade better after a drawdown or worse?

    How about after you have a few winning trades, days, or weeks in a row? Do you trade better or worse? Breaking down your performance as a function of recent performance will tell you a great deal about how effective you are in coping with risk and reward.

    The other excellent indicator of whether your coping is working for you is your emotional experience during trading. If you find that anxiety, overconfidence, frustration, and stress are pushing you into poor decisions, you know that you’re not coping well with the uncertainties of markets.

    Finally, it is helpful to identify the sequences of coping behaviors that you utilize when you’re making good decisions and the sequences when you’re trading poorly. Knowing how your individual coping responses come together to form coping strategies can help you cultivate your coping strengths.

    Tracking how you deal with challenges when you are at your most effective enables you to create a mental model of that coping that you can call upon during periods of high stress. We cannot avoid the stresses of trading, but those do not have to generate distress and biased decisions.

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