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Two Key Questions

1) Do the problems that affect your trading also impact other areas of your life? – Let’s say that you find yourself overtrading and taking too much risk relative to your planned exposure. You realize that these lapses of discipline are costing you money and creating significant frustration. The key question to ask is whether these lapses also occur in other spheres of life: in managing personal finances, in failing to follow through on personal responsibilities, or in impulsive decision-making regarding career, relationships, and the future. If so, then you know that this is a general problem that is spilling over into trading. Working with a psychologist or other licensed therapist or counselor could be the best way to go, as this is not uniquely a trading problem. Alternatively, if the problem truly is unique to trading, then it is probably triggered by situational factors related to how you are trading. Relying on a trading coach to review your trading practices and address these factors can be promising.
2) Do the problems primarily result from poor trading, or are the problems a primary cause of poor trading? – This can be tricky to sort out, because the direction of causality often goes both ways. Many times, poor trading practices–such as trading excessive risk–lead to emotional fallout, such as frustration, anxiety, or even depression. Working on changing emotions might be helpful, but the root cause–the faulty money management–needs to be addressed. Conversely, there are times when emotional problems, such as performance anxiety, get in the way of trading plans and trading results. It is very helpful to examine trading problems in a step-by-step fashion, to see where emotions are affecting trading and to see where trading is creating emotional pressures.  (more…)

BY IGNORANCE THE TRUTH IS KNOWN

Whether we choose to believe it or not we do not know the future, nor can we predict it with any consistency.  When the future does play out exactly as predicted luck must be credited.

We stock traders love to predict.  When we are right (which is not very often) we are quick to pat ourselves on the back, staking our claim on expert technical and/or fundamental analysis.  When we are wrong we are just as quick to deny responsibility, usually blaming the “market” for its ignorance.  All too often we justify our losses because we mistakenly believe the market is wrong.

But if the truth be known we are the ones who are ignorant and we choose to remain so.  Ignorance can only be used as an excuse until the truth is discovered.  The truth is we are wrong. The market is always right.

So, here is the truth.

We are ignorant of randomness and uncertainty.  We are ignorant of the many reasons others have for buying and selling, oftentimes diametrically opposed to our own.  We are ignorant of the hidden forces that move markets both intra-day and day to day.  We are ignorant of unforeseen news and how the “market” will interpret it.  We are ignorant of our many and varied biases, too numerous to mention here.  In a word, we are ignorant.

But in ignorance we find truth; in ignorance we find opportunity.  We traders can use our ignorance as a tool for profitability.  But can we handle it?

Can we accept that our expert analysis can be wrong?  Can we accept uncertainty?  Can we admit that our decision making processes are often flawed because of our psychological makeup? Can we accept that the market is always right? Can we handle the truth?

If we dare confront our ignorance we can then proceed to admit to and accept our flawed biases.   We can admit that luck plays a major role in our success.

We can actually exit losing trades.  We can take profits without getting greedy. We can cease to fear the future.  We can accept, and even learn to embrace, uncertainty.  We can then use technical and fundamental analysis as tools to manage our emotionally based biases, not confirm them.   We can become consistent in our decisions.  We can become profitable.

We can discover the truth by our ignorance.