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Two Facts

  
  Education
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anirudhsethithougts
Iam tracking Indian Stock Market and Global Market since 1992.Yes after 17 years ..I had seen these are two real facts of Trading.

#1: Small-range market periods lead to large-range market periods. Low volatility breeds high volatility, which in turn leads to low volatility.
Just about the time everyone is resigned that market conditions will never change is exactly when conditions will change.
#2: Trading is a business where you can never be right. Never. No matter what we do, our mistakes will always outnumber our correct decisions. That’s why grading ourselves on every minute` decision will come up with more of a batting average score than college test score.
Mistakes can always outnumber correct actions… so long as correct actions outweigh mistakes. It ain’t the size of our right or wrong actions that counts: it’s how much they weigh in $$ values. Size does matter.
The great news is, as traders we never have to be perfect. We don’t even have to be 50% perfect. We only need to maximize our wins and minimize our losses. And we only need to win once per day, more days than not to be good. Just barely profitable = the top ten percentile of our profession. Anything beyond that is outperforming 90% of the field.

Market Gravitates or We Spot those LEVELS…. Mystery !!

  
Analysis, Education
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BANK NIFTY

Here in this very space we have written Y’day and updated today intra-day too: @ 9106 wrote to Sell CNX Bank INDEX on any Rise. It would tumble to 8719 level very shortly.  Bang on… just in 48 hrs it collapsed to exactly our level, precisely 8715, a whooping fall of 400 points. 

 In the same breathe you were forewarned that for NF not crossing 5165-68 would weaken it to 4994 – 4970 levels. Exactly from 5168 of y’day it has nosedived uptill 5017.

 

These are indices: Non-manipulatable, Non-influential. How did it happen, who did it, can there be any attributes at all !!!!  Its our ever dependable charts, Analytical skills and wisdom of Insight. Collectively Technical Analysis. Just Pure Intelligence.

Yesterday  I written about Bank stocks…Just click here

Read Yesterday’s Guesstimates

Many Traders had asked about MTNL…..and they say I don’t about failure calls.First of all about MTNL….Technically was /still looking hot …But I had written many times never act blindly in market and always consider price as Father of stock/Commodity.

-Now click here and see…the reason ..Why MTNL had crashed in yesterday’s trade.

Now about Failure calls.If I recommend any stock or do analysis then I always write Support/Resistance levels. (more…)

Mera Bharat Mahaan

  
Economy, Education, LINKS
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sensex16kThe Sensex, the benchmark index of BSE, posted a return of 64% during the first 36 weeks of the current calendar year increasing their kitty by whopping Rs 946,757 cr. Incidentally, this is the highest return during the same period for the last 17 years.

Many hurdles for Wardha’s farmer suicide cases

Farmers grow desperate as India is hit by worst drought since 1972

Drought-hit Indian farmers sell wives to pay debts

Uttar Pradesh Farmers Among Worst Hit by Drought

Dark secrets of Baramati

Drought, debt lead to Indian Farmers’ suicide

India’s Sugar Crop Wilts Amid Drought

Droughtexpands in India, sugar regions hitHunger haunts more than 20% in India, much of Asia: ADB report

 

 

Is India getting poorer?

Not A One Way Train

  
  Education
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Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:

Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term

It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.

Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.

Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.

When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.

At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!

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