Latest Posts
rssYour Worst & Best Trade -20 Points
Your worst trade:
- Did you trade the actual price action or just your opinion?
- Were you trading with a stop loss? Did you honor your stop loss or let a small loss turn into a big one?
- Did you fight the trend in your time frame?
- Did you try to front run an actual signal before it triggered?
- Were you trading with a bias that made you see what you wanted to see instead of what was actually happening?
- Did you trade with a trading plan?
- Was your position size too big?
- Did you allow fear, greed, or ego to override your trading plan?
- Did you trade in a market you did not fully understand?
- How much did your stubbornness cost you?
Your best trade:
- Did you trade on a high probability setup based on a chart pattern or backtested entry signal?
- Did you enter with a great risk/reward ratio?
- Were you able to let a winning trade run as far as it would go?
- Did you trade on the right side of the trend for your time frame?
- Were you able to trail your stop to let your winner run?
- Did you trade in a market after doing your homework?
- Did you keep your opinions flexible but your trading plan firm?
- Did you react and trade the actual price action in your time frame?
- Did your discipline pay you a nice dividend?
- Did your small position size allow you to trade in a clear and logical manner?
Profile Of The Successful Trader
Trading is being young, imperfect, and human – not old, exacting, and scientific. It is not a set of techniques, but a commitment. You are to be an information processor. Not a swami. Not a guru. An information processor.
Participating in the markets can only develop your trading skills. You need to become a part of the markets, to know the state of the markets at any given time, and most importantly, to know yourself. You need to be patient, confident, and mentally tough.
Good traders offer no excuses, make no complaints. They live willingly with the vagaries of life and the markets.
In the early stages of your trading career, pay attention not only to whether you should buy or sell but also to how you have executed your trading ideas. You will learn more from your trades this way.
Never assume that the unreasonable or the unexpected cannot happen. It can. It does. It will.
Remember, you can learn a lot about trading from your mistakes. When you make a mistake – and you will – do not dwell on the negatives. Learn from the mistake and keep going.
Never forget that markets are made up of people. Think constantly about what others are doing, what they might do in the current circumstances, or what they might do when those circumstances change. Remember that, whenever you buy and hope to sell higher, the person you sell to will have to see the same opportunity at that higher price to be induced to buy.
Traders who lose follow one of several typical patterns. Some repeatedly suffer individual large losses that wipe out earlier gains or greatly increase a small loss. Others experience brief periods during which their trading wheels fall off: they lose discipline and control and make a series of bad trades as a result.
Wise traders make many small trades, remain involved, and constantly maintain and sharpen their feel for he market. For all of their work, they hope to receive some profit, even if it is small in terms of dollars. In addition, continual participation allows them to sense and recognize the few real opportunities when they arise. These generate large rewards that make the effort of trading truly worthwhile.
At the end of the chapter he lists specific observations that have a high enough probability of reoccurring he considers them rules:
- If you find yourself holding a winning position, adding up your profits, and confidently projecting larger gains on the horizon, you are probably better off exiting the trade. The odds are that the trade has run its course.
- When entering a trade with a market order and your fill is clearly better than expected, odds are it will end up being a losing trade. Good fill, bad trade. Get out!
- If all your ‘trading buddies’ agree with your expectations regarding the next big move, it probably will not work out. If everyone’s conviction level is as strong as the consensus, do the opposite.
THE THREE PHASES OF A TRADE
The ANTICIPATION Phase: this is where all the left hand chart reading takes place in preparation for the right hand chart battle. It’s the PROCESS that precedes the ACTION to put on a trade. A technical trader anticipates that a past price pattern will repeat again, so he identifies the pattern, locates a current one and determines a suitable match is present. Technical analysis is nothing more than finding previous price patterns matched with current market conditions. Traders anticipate such repetitive behavior based on human nature and seek to take advantage of it.
The ACTION phase involves hitting the BUY key based on the previous ANTICIPATION process. Since no one can tell the future or what the right hand side of the chart will reveal, the ACTION is based on the confidence that the trader will do what is right once a trade is put on, which is to exit gracefully at a pre-determined loss line or exit humbly at a pre-determined profit target (P2), fully accepting either/or, or an OUTCOME between one or the other, depending on current market conditions. (more…)
Love this table from Benjamin Roth’s diary in 1935. Rinse, repeat.
ONE OF THE GREAT THINGS ABOUT THE MARKET
One of the great things about the market is, the markets don’t care about you. The market doesn’t care what color you are. The markets don’t care if you are short or tall. They don’t care about anything. They don’t care whether you leave or stay…I met the guy who wrote this best seller now called, Bringing Down the House, it’s about these MIT guys who beat the blackjack tables. And part of the problem, if you’re going to be a blackjack counter is that the casinos don’t like you. They actively don’t like you. And they come and tell you in rather strong things to take your business away. Well, the beautiful thing about the markets, they don’t like you, they don’t dislike you, they just don’t care. They are there everyday. You want to play, you can play. You don’t want to play, don’t play. And you can choose. You sit, there is no penalty. You know, when you stand you know…I don’t know how many of you play baseball…when your at bat if something comes through the strike[zone], if you don’t swing you still get a strike against you. But the markets are a no penalty game. You can stand there and wait. You can go home and wait. It doesn’t matter. And that’s really a terrific thing.
This is a good page from the millionaire mind
The Golden Rules: 10 Steps to World-Class Excellence in Your Life and Work -Book Review
How many times does one have to read good advice before acting on it? I don’t know. I for one continue to struggle. This time the advice comes from Bob Bowman, Michael Phelps’s coach, in The Golden Rules: 10 Steps to World-Class Excellence in Your Life and Work (St. Martin’s Press, 2016), written with Charles Butler.
The rules are straightforward:
1. A champion sets a “dream big” vision
2. Adopt an “all-in!” attitude, not a “get out!” one
3. Take risks—and then enjoy the rewards
4. Short-term goals lead to long-term success
5. Live the vision every day
6. A team approach can inspire individual success
7. Stay motivated over the long haul
8. Adversity will make you stronger
9. When the time comes, perform with confidence
10. Celebrate your achievement, then decide what’s next
Following them is something else.