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Major indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day

The major US indices are closing higher for the 2nd consecutive day. Having said that, the gains were relatively modest as traders await the Fed decision tomorrow.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average is up 67.27 points or 0.20% at 33128.78
  • S&P is up 20.08 points or +0.48% at 4175.47
  • Nasdaq is up 27.75 points or 0.22% at 12563.77
  • Russell 2000 is up 15.94 points or 0.85% at 1898.85

Its not clear if Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma has been arrested, but BABA shares are plunging

Bloomberg terminal story notes:

  • Chinese authorities in the city of Hangzhou, home base to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Ant Group Co., have imposed”compulsory curbs” on an individual surnamed Ma, state broadcaster CCTV reported Tuesday.
  • The person,who was otherwise unidentified, was placed under the so called controls on April 25 after being accused of inciting subversion of state power and other activities that endangered national security, CCTV said in its brief report, without elaborating.

Its not clear if its Jack Ma of Alibaba. BABA shares were cut by around 9% but have since rebounded somewhat.

Former top Fed policy staffer suggests neutral rate could be 5%

The Wall Street Journal report on a paper from a “former top Fed staffer”.

  • Federal Reserve officials have time before they need to agree on what constitutes a neutral level for monetary policy
  • but neutral may well be a lot higher than central bankers currently expect
  • officials appear to see something around 2.5% as neutral, inflation expectations data suggests neutral could be much higher, like 5% if the data is accurate.

Link to the article here, it is gated though.

Morgan Stanley see “meaningful downside” for the S&P500

MS on the S&P500, analysts think the index has downside to at least 3800 in the ‘near term’ and possible to 3460

  • the 200 week moving average if forward 12 month EPS start to fall on margin and/or recession concerns

MS adds note the S&P 500 real earnings yield is the most negative since the 1950s and that to them this

  • Suggests we have meaningful downside at the index level as investors figure this out

MS have been on the right side of the slide of the index so far.

spx 03 May 2022

NASDAQ index/other indices rebound higher to start the month of May NASDAQ index was down over 4.1% last Friday

The major US indices looked like they may start the month of May off the way they ended the month of April – with declines across the board. The Dow industrial average is down -1.6%. The S&P was down -1.69% and the NASDAQ was down -1.07% in the New York afternoon. However, buyers entered, and erased the declines and closed nearer the high levels of the day.

At the closing bell:

  • Dow industrial average rose 84.29 points or 0.26% at 33061.49
  • S&P index rose 23.47 points or 0.57% at 4155.39
  •  NASDAQ  index rose 201.39 points or 1.63% at 12536.03
  • Russell 2000 rose 18.81 points or 1.01% at 1882.91

The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday and are expected to increase rates by 50 basis points.

Since their last meeting decision on March 16:

  • The DXY index is up 5.3%
  • The 10 year yield is up 83 baais points
  • The Nasdaq is down -6.65%
  • The S&P is down -4.65%

That is some headwinds for the market, but inflation remains an unknown, housing continues have supply/demand imbalances (although getting better) and the Fed is behind the curve in getting rates to neutral (2% to 2.5%).

Follow These 6 Successful Trader Habits to Set Yourself Up for Success

Not Looking for a Quick Fix

If you have an interest in forex trading, it is highly likely that you have come across advertisements that promise to show you guaranteed ways to be profitable with your trading. However, there is actually no secret formula for success. People who are looking for a quick fix will quickly get found out and their account balance will suffer.

By implementing proper habits, you can boost your chances of being successful. There is just no secret strategy that will ensure that you are going to be profitable. Therefore, you need to stay patient and disciplined if you want to succeed in the long run.

Staying Disciplined

One of the most important attributes of a successful trader is discipline. A plan is a vital part of any trader’s weekly approach. However, you need to have the discipline to make sure that you stick to the plan at all times. Beginner traders often will deviate from their plan if things aren’t temporarily going their way or if they let emotion affect their decisions.

If you stay in line with your trading plan. You will be better positioned to manage risk, cut losses short, as well as lock in profit. This ultimately will only help your bottom line of the curse of time.

Avoid Risky Gambles

While risks are a part of trading, you should never blindly gamble when placing trades. Otherwise, you are just as better off going to a casino. You need to be fully aware of a market situation before placing a trade.

Due diligence and making sure that you are only investing an appropriate sum into a given trade is needed for each trade you make. Luck is not a factor that you can rely on when placing trades. This could be a recipe for disaster.

Manage Expectations

When many people start out trading, they have visions of Ferraris and all sorts of luxury goods. Some people see forex trading as a get-rich-quick scheme. However, once you get started on trading you will realize that this is far from reality.

While it is good to be positive about your trading, you also need to have realistic expectations. You can have good days and bad days, but you shouldn’t let these results impact how you are feeling. By staying the course and being consistent, you can boost your chances of getting consistently good returns.

No Panic

There is a lot of human behavior associated with changing markets. A lot of people tend to buy on greed and sell on fear. If you are able to stay calm, you can often take advantage of these traits.

You might be able to spot those times when people are being greedy or when people are panicking. By keeping a calm and clear head, you can figure out when potentially profitable opportunities arise, allowing you to take advantage of trends.

Never Stop Learning

Successful traders always remain curious. They are always looking at ways to get ahead and to improve their trading. If a trader thinks that they have everything figured out, this usually doesn’t end well. With the internet, you have endless options to learn from successful traders and to constantly build upon your current level of education.

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