Singapore January to March 2022 GDP

+0.7% q/q

• expected 0.8%, prior 1.4%

+3.7% y/y

• expected 3.7%, prior 3.4%

Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry says its held on to its 3 to 5% GDP forecast for the year, but growth is likely to come in at the lower end of that range.

People’s Bank of China benchmark rates setting.

• 1 year at 3.7%, unchanged
• 5 year at 4.45%, a 15bp cut
• In April the one-year loan prime rate was held at 3.70% while the five-year remained at 4.60%. The last time there was a change was when the rates were trimmed slightly in January this year.

The LPRs are benchmark lending rates, set on the 20th of each month. 18 commercial banks in China submit their proposed rates to the People’s Bank of China. The LPRs are based on the current rate charged for the PBOC Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF).

Japan GDP preliminary for Q1 2022

GDP sa -0.2% q/q

• expected -0.4%, prior +1.1%

GDP annualised sa -1.0% y/y

• expected -1.8%, prior +4.6%

GDP deflator (an inflation indication) -0.4% y/y

• expected -1.2%, prior -1.3%

Private consumption 0.0% q/q

• expected -0.5% q/q, prior 2.4%

Business spending 0.5% q/q

• expected 0.7%, prior 0.3%

External demand -0.4% q/q

expected -0.3%, prior 0.2%

more to come

On the revision, the agency says that the continued strict lockdowns are biting at economic activity across the country, leading to weaker growth in general. Domestic employment, investor sentiment, supply chains, and broader capital markets are all being impacted and the mounting confluence of credit headwinds from tighter Fed policy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict heightens the risks.

The base case for their China 2022 GDP growth forecast is now 4.2% from 4.9% previously. But in the event where lockdowns extend to another “economically important” city, the growth rate could fall to 3.5%.

EC Cuts 2023 Euro Zone Economic Growth Forecast to 2.3% From 2.7% Seen in Feb

China official PMIs for April 2022
• Manufacturing 47.4 vs. expected 48.0, prior 49.5
• Non-manufacturing 41.9 vs. prior 48.4

China Caixin /Markit Manufacturing PMI for April comes in at 46.0
• vs. expected 47.0, prior 48.1

The intensification of the COVID-19 outbreak and the associated lockdowns and restrictions across many centres in the country, most notably in Shanghai and other economic powerhouse regions, weighed on the economy in the month.

A senior US administration official:

• data expected to show smaller growth in Q1 than Q4, slower inventory growth likely an issue after big jump in Q4
• US GDP data also expected to show very strong household balance sheets, household consumption, business investment
• US GDP data will show that ‘economic conditions are still very, very strong’
• says Russia’s war in Ukraine likely to have muted impact on Q1 GDP data, US exposure to Russian economy is ‘fairly limited’
• says Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index data expected to reflect ‘quite elevated’ headline inflation, but core  inflation  likely to be flat-lined or lower
• US monitoring impact of Ukraine war on European economies very carefully-official

Deutsche Bank

• Fed likely to pursue the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s
• “We assume conservatively that a Fed funds rate moving well into the 5% to 6% range”
• “the monetary-tightening process will be bolstered by Fed balance-sheet reduction, which our U.S. economics team estimates will be equivalent to a couple additional 25 basis-point rate hikes.”

This

• “will push the economy into a significant recession by late next year,”

info via Bloomberg (gated)

IMF:

• Asian region faces stagflationary outlook with growth being lower than previously expected and inflation being higher
• Larger-than-expected slowdown in China due to prolonged or more widespread lockdowns, longer-than-expected slump in the property market, constitutes significant risk for Asia
• Monetary tightening will be needed in most countries, with speed of tightening depending on domestic inflation developments and external pressures
• despite the recent uptick inflation remains subdued in Japan, allowing the Bank of Japan to more accommodative than the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank

remarks come from

IMF Asia And Pacific Department Acting Director Gulde-Wolf, via Reuters headlines