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Some oil news ICYMI – US shale producers to boost oil output by 500,000 bpd by month-end

Reuters report on what analysts & some in the industry are expecting

  • Larger producers are re-opening the taps in low-cost plays in Texas, but also in expensive shale basins in North Dakota and Oklahoma.
  • “With prices where they are now, if they stay above $30, I wouldn’t expect any significant curtailments from us in Q3 or beyond,” Devon Energy Corp Chief Executive David Hager said at a J.P. Morgan energy conference on Tuesday.
This would be a rapid (albeit partial) bounce back from prior supply cuts in shale. It’ll add pressure back onto OPEC+ who recently agreed to extend their their output cuts. Supply coming back on line as prices rise … pretty textbook economics this.
Here’s the link to Reuters for more
Reuters report on what analysts & some in the industry are expecting

A US – UK trade deal is unlikely before the US presidential election in November

Greg posted the news earlier on the outlook for the free trade negotiations between the US and UK

Check out Gregs post for more info, and also this recap:
  • America’s top trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer’s says a deal with the UK is unlikely before the US presidential election in November.
  • “There are very, very fundamental issues that we have to come to grips with”
  • “I don’t want anyone to think this is going to be a rollover.”
Report with more via BBC, link here
Greg posted the news earlier on the outlook for the free trade negotiations between the US and UK

Major European indices in the session with mixed results

Spain’s Ibex and Italy’s FTSE MIB lower

The European stock indices are closed and are ending with mixed results. The closes are showing:

  • German DAX, +0.54%
  • France’s CAC, +0.88%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.17%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.22%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.2%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, +0.41%
Spain's Ibex and Italy's FTSE MIB lower_
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly higher with the exception of the UK yield which is down -1.8 basis points. Below are the high, low yields in the closing levels.
The 10 year yield

So much for the breaks

Markets are misbehaving…

The markets are misbehaving.  The market broke after Texas reported a surge in hospitalizations, but the pattern being developed that it will take more than a region to bother the markets. Moreover, the hope regarding coronavirus now in the US is just plow through it. If you are vulnerable, take care of yourself.  Pres. Trump will be rallying up Oklahoma and Arizona in the next week.  Let er rip and see where the cards fall.
For the markets:
  • Stocks are off the lows still led by the Nasdaq. The S&P is trading above and below 0.0 after trading down about 14 points. The Dow is down -18 points after being down about -154 points. The Nasdaq moved to unchange but is now back up by 55 points.
  • EURUSD fell to the lowest level since June 4 and below the lows from this week and last week between 1.1212 and 1.1225. The price squeezed back to 1.1237 and trades at 1.1225 now.
  • GBPUSD fell below the 100 day MA at 1.2522 to a low at 1.2510 but is back above the 100 day MA at 1.2539 currently.
  • USDJPY fell below its 100 hour MA at 107.244 on way to a low at 107.12. It has traded back above that MA line and trades at the MA level as I type.
  • USDCAD spiked above its 100 hour MA at 1.35804 but is trading back below the MA level at 1.3556 after peaking at 1.35936.

Markets are just not acting right. They are misbehaving… It is time to take a little break and take a breathe

OPEC sticks to demand-drop forecast

The latest numbers from the monthly OPEC report

  • Left 2020 demand forecast at -9.1 mbpd
  • Says Q2 demand was down 17.3 mbpd
  • OPEC output fell 6.3mbpd in May based on secondary sources
OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets this week to assess supply-demand balances. So far they haven’t adopted the reopening optimism but noted that higher prices are “suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving.”
WTI crude was volatile yesterday and has ticked lower today, down 55-cents to $37.84.

The latest numbers from the monthly OPEC report