IEA says oil market headed for surplus with omicron impact rather muted

  • Despite omicron wave, oil demand rose in Q4 2021 by 1.1 mil bpd to 99 mil bpd
  • But supply will soon overtake demand as some producers set to pump at or above all-time highs
  • Steady rise in supply could see significant surplus in Q1 2022 and going forward
  • US, Canada, Brazil set to pump at all-time highs for the year
  • Russia and Saudi could also break their output records

Analyst says a 50bp rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March is warranted

The Bloomberg economist says:

  • Our in-house model of a Fed reaction function — the Bloomberg Economics rule (“BE rule”) — suggests that a 50 basis-point rate hike at the March meeting is warranted, followed by another five 25 basis-point rate hikes the rest of the year.

Maybe 50bps is warranted, maybe it isn’t. The Fed is still doing QE on a massive scale. they will not hike by 50bps in March (IMO anyway).

“You want me what?”

Federal Reserve Chair Powell
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