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China’s Q1 2020 GDP drop was -19.4%, not the officially reported -6.8%

The veracity of China’s economic data is an ongoing topic.

Here’s a paper from four researchers at universities in the US and … China.
Their paper, based on traffic flow data, finds that GDP in Q1 of 2020, when China imposed severe restrictions in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, declined by -19.4%, not by the official figure of -6.8%.

WSJ report on China’s economy to reach parity with the US by 2028

That’s is the expectation of some economist according to the Wall Street Journal (link here (may be gated) )

2028 is five years earlier than pre-covid forecasts and comes in the light of China’s economy bouncing back (albeit in a patchy fashion, the consumer is still very weak) and the US’ relatively languishing under the weight of the mishandling of the crisis.
And the gap will widen thereafter:
That's is the expectation of some economist according to the Wall Street Journal (link here (may be gated) )

What’s on the US economic calendar this week

Slow start, busy after that

It’s a big week in the US on the political front and there are some interstesting data points on the economic calendar.
Tuesday:
  • Yellen testimony
  • Earnings: BAC, GS, NFLX
Wednesday:
  • Biden inauguration
  • NAHB housing market index
  • Earnings: AA
Thursday:
  • Housing starts
  • Initial jobless claims
  • Philly Fed
  • Earnings: IBM, INTC
Friday:
  • Markit services and manufacturing
  • Existing home sales
  • Dallas Fed

Trump not expected to pardon himself – report

Tomorrow is last-minute pardon day

Trump is expected to issue more than 100 pardons tomorrow, and one may include Julian Assange. However one person who won’t be getting one is Trump himself. The ability of the President to pardon himself is a murky legal concept and he’s not going to go down that round, according to Fox and a separate report from Reuters.
He’s also not going to offer protective pardons for his family, according to the same report.
CNN reported that Dr Salomon Melgen, a prominent eye doctor from Palm Beach who is in prison after being convicted on dozens of counts of health care fraud, is expected to be on the clemency list.
There’s also a disturbing report saying an associate of Rudy Giuliani told a former CIA officer a presidential pardon was “going to cost $2m”

US Capitol goes into lockdown due to external security threat

Odd day to be threatening something

There’s a 99.9% chance this is nothing but given recent events, it’s notable. However it’s an odd day to be phoning in a threat because it’s a holiday in the US and many (most?) politicians won’t be there.
An alert told people to stay away from windows. The inauguration rehearsal was also evacuated.
Update: There are a reports of a fire somewhat close to the Capitol and that might have been what caused the alarm. The fire has been extinguished.