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Barbara Tversky’s 9 Laws of Cognition

9 Laws of Cognition

1: There are no benefits without costs (creativity vs learning)
2: Action molds perception
3: Feeling Comes first (before recognition)
4: The mind can override perception (confirmation bias)
5: Cognition mirrors perception
6: Spatial thinking is the foundation of abstract thought
7: The mind fills in misinformation
8: When thought overflows the mind, the mind puts it in the world
9: We organize stuff in the world the way we organize stuff in the mind.

Reminder: The long weekend in Europe continues to Monday next week

European markets will be closed on next Monday as well

Easter
It will also be a holiday in Australia, New Zealand, and China so expect the Asian and European trading sessions to be extremely quiet with liquidity conditions severely impacted.
Besides that, just take note that US markets will return on Monday next week. Technically, Treasuries are open for a half-day today but amid holiday-thin liquidity, we are likely to see “proper” moves take place next Monday instead.
However, with non-farm payrolls posing a risk, there is an off-chance to see exacerbated moves in response to any major surprises in the data today.

Dollar steady ahead of payrolls later today

All quiet in Europe amid the Easter holiday

It is Good Friday today and most European markets are observing a holiday, with FX being the only notable market open ahead of the weekend.
The dollar is keeping steadier with little change observed across the board after a pullback yesterday, with Treasuries seeing a bid before the extended break.
Most dollar pairs are sitting within a 0.1% change at the moment, reflecting a lack of interest amid thinner liquidity conditions with all eyes on the US payrolls later today.
If anything, there might be outsized moves on dollar pairs depending on the nature of the surprise. Otherwise, it may be more of a fluff and a whimper before the week officially comes to a close later in the day.
Watch out for USD/JPY as it continues to hover below 111.00 with resistance seen around 110.84-96 and near-term support seen closer towards 110.42-43 and then the 23.6 retracement level and 100-hour moving average @ 110.36-37.
USD/JPY H1 02-04
Despite a bit of a pullback in the dollar over the last two days, the greenback is still headed for a third straight weekly gain – the first time since February last year.

March non-farm payrolls preview: Good Friday release, by the numbers

A look at what to expect in the March 2021 non-farm payrolls report

non-farm payrolls report unemployemnt rate
  • Consensus estimate +650K
  • Private +640K
  • February +379K
  • Highest estimate +1000K (3 estimates)
  • Lowest estimate +232K (Southbay)
  • Average estimate +671K
  • Standard deviation +155K
  • Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 6.0% vs 6.2% prior
  • Participation rate consensus +61.5% vs 61.4% prior
  • Prior underemployment U6 prior 11.1%
  • Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.5% y/y vs +5.3% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.1% vs +0.2% prior
  • Avg weekly hours exp 34.7 vs 34.6 prior

Here’s the March jobs story so far

  • ADP +517K vs +550K expected
  • ISM services employment not yet released
  • ISM manufacturing employment 59.6 vs 54.4 prior
  • Initial jobless claims survey week 765K vs 847K in February
  • Conference Board help wanted online demand for hiring not yet released
  • Challenger Job Cuts 30K vs 34K prior

Non-farm payrolls is being released on Good Friday, which is an unusual situation because bond and equity markets will be closed. That will leave all the action in FX but London will be especially thin because it’s a holiday there.

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