China Q3 GDP 6.0% y/y (expected 6.1%)

Economic growth data from China for July – September 2019

For the q/q 1.5%

  • expected +1.5%
  • prior was +1.6%

For the y/y 6.0% –  a small miss.

  • expected +6.1%
  • prior was +6.2%
The small disappointment on the GDP number will be tempered somewhat by the big beat for September industrial production, on a separate post:
  • China September activity data: Industrial Production 5.8% y/y (expected 4.9%)
Yet again China GDP comes in not more than 0.1% away from the Bloomberg survey central estimate. The government target is 6 to 6.5% and woe betide the statistician who brings in a result under…
6.0% is the slowest in 27 and a 1/2 years (wait … FT says 30 years). Thing is, as the economy grow in size … and its huge, expecting super-duper % growth rates is unreasonable.

The Economist says UK PM Johnson needs a miracle to the Brexit deal approved by parliament

The Economist gives plaudits to BJ for getting this far, saying his “achievement is noteworthy“.

  • Johnson’s withdrawal agreement is essentially the same as Mrs May’s


  • May’s deal pointed to a comprehensive free-trade deal
  • Johnson’s … will increase the cost of Brexit … will reduce British income per person by 6.4% compared with what it would otherwise be, whereas Mrs May’s would reduce it by 4.9%-
  • The biggest question over Mr Johnson’s deal is whether he can get it ratified …  Yet the arithmetic is against Mr Johnson

On the chances of getting it approved by parliament:

  • It is possible 
  • So far in his short premiership Mr Johnson has lost all but one of the votes held in the House of Commons. Barring a miracle, he looks like losing again this weekend.

(bolding mine)

The vote is on Saturday in the UK.
The Economist gives plaudits to BJ for getting this far, saying his "achievement is noteworthy".

Risk for USD/CNY is back under 7

Commerzbank analyst says there is a risk of a strengthening yuan,

Citing the possibility of a more definite US-China trade deal.
  • shouldn’t rule out the possibility that good news on trade talks emerge in the near term
Huh. Given the way relations are going I’m going have to say the opposite to Commerz on this.

Oil rallies to the highs of the week

WTI crude at the best levels since Friday

WTI crude at the best levels since Friday
There was a huge build in US oil supplies in data released today but the market has shaken it off. That’s a great sign for the bulls and it comes — in part — due to draws in products.
I think this could lead to some short-term upside but WTI needs to get above $56 to really make any headway.

European equity close: Modest moves but FTSE 100 higher

Closing changes for the main European bourses:

  • UK FTSE 100 +0.5%
  • French CAC 40 -0.1%
  • German DAX -0.1%
  • Italy MIB +0.1%
  • Spain IBEX +0.2%
The FTSE is higher today despite GBP gains but it’s been a struggle in the past month and we’re not meaningfully off the lows.
Closing changes for the main European bourses:

US weekly EIA energy inventories +9281K vs +3000K expected

Weekly US oil inventory data from the EIA:

  • Prior was +2927K
  • Gasoline -2562K vs -1500K exp
  • Distillates -3823K vs -2500K exp
  • Cushing +1276K
  • Refinery utilization -2.6%
The headlines aren’t as bad as they look because the API numbers from late yesterday were so bearish. The drop in refinery runs and draws in products takes the sting out of the report:
  • Crude +10500K
  • Cushing +1600K
  • Gasoline -934K
  • Distillates -2900K

S&P 500 trades at a three-week high as the optimism extends

S&P 500 starts strong

S&P 500 starts strong
US stocks continue to bask in the glow of the China trade truce.
The S&P 500 is up 16 points to 3006 and trading has been narrow since the open. Shares of Netflix, JPMorgan and Alcoa are higher after reporting earnings. That’s the highest since Sept 24 and about 0.7% from the all-time high.
I’m watching Netflix as a bit of a barometer. It closed at $287 before earnings yesterday after the close. It opened at $318 but has given up virtually all the gains and is at $292.

Labour’s Corbyn: Johnson’s deal is worse than May’s

Comments by Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn

  • Best way to sort Brexit is to have a second referendum
  • Johnson’s “sell out” deal should be rejected
Earlier in the day, it is said that Labour lawmakers have been whipped to vote for a second referendum on Saturday. If that is the case, it means that Johnson will find any further support for his deal to be lacking.