US major indices break losing streaks but close well off the highs

NASDAQ snaps 5 day losing streak. Dow and S&P break 4-day decline

The US major indices snapped their losing streaks but also close well off there intraday highs.  The NASDAQ index had had a 5 day losing streak while the Dow and S&P declined for 4 straight days.

  • S&P index closed up 16.23 points or 0.47% 3443.15. The high price reached 3476.93. The low extended to 3435.65.
  • NASDAQ index closed up 37.613 points or 0.33% at 11516.49. The high price reached 11632.89. The low extended to 11471.23.
  • Dow industrial average closed up 113.27 points or 0.4% at 28308.69. The high price reached 28575.03. The low extended to 28243.04
Netflix earnings released after the close and numbers were disappointing:
  • The consensus EPS Estimate of 2.14 (up +45.6% Y/Y) . The actual earnings per share came in at $1.74
  • Consensus Revenue Estimate is $6.38B (up +21.5% Y/Y).  Revenues came in at $6.44 billion
  • Analysts expect operating income of $1.29B
  • Streaming paid net adds are expected to rise by 3.3M for the quarter. They came in much lower at 2.2MThe company guided to 2.5M.
  • Netflix sees fourth-quarter streaming paid net change of 6 million vs estimates of 6.54 million
  • See Q4 revenue of 6.57 billion vs. estimate 6.59 billion
  • See 4Q EPS of $1.35 vs. $0.97 estimate

The price after the close is down close to 6%

European shares end the session with mixed results

Provisional closes for the major European indices

The European major indices are ending the session with mixed results. The German DAX fell -0.9%. The Spain’s Ibex increased by 1.0%. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX -0.9%
  • France’s CAC, -0.1%
  • UK FTSE 100, +0.15%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.0%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.6%

How likely are you to take a coronavirus vaccine if recommended to do so?

A survey overseen by the Vaccine Confidence Project (VCP) shows that 71.5% of participants would be very or somewhat likely to take a vaccine

The VCP is a global surveillance programme on vaccine trust funded by the European Commission and some pharmaceutical companies, and the survey here was conducted back in June with more than 13,000 participants from 19 countries.
The 19 countries surveyed are said to be among the top 35 countries affected by the pandemic in terms of cases per million population.
Anyway, the results show that 71.5% of participants would be very or somewhat likely to take a coronavirus vaccine but they would be less likely to accept one – only 61.4% – if it were mandated/recommended by their employers instead.
That said, the response by country presents some polarising opinions about a vaccine.
Almost 90% of participants in China said they would accept a vaccine, whereas in France the positive response rate is only 59% with the US and UK observing a 75% and 71% positive response rate respectively.
I would argue that this tells us little about the mood in the world now as the situation in June is far from how things are panning out currently. Coronavirus fatigue is real and a second wave is dawning upon Europe. It’s going to be a terrible winter everywhere.

All of that will play into considerations about a vaccine if and when the time comes.

However, the survey above also highlights some caution and hesitancy to trust any early ‘breakthroughs’ and that is part of human nature.
Russia’s vaccine story is a prime example of that and if anything, it also tells us that any positive progress from a medical perspective will need to be translated to a practical one where everybody in the world can have access to the vaccine in a timely manner.

European equities open slightly lower to start the day

Softer tones in Europe to get the session underway

  • Eurostoxx -0.2%
  • Germany DAX -0.4%
  • France CAC 40 flat
  • UK FTSE -0.1%
  • Spain IBEX -0.2%
The softer tone reflects some catch-up play to the decline by US stocks yesterday, which closed ~1.6% lower amid fading stimulus hopes.

BOJ expected to cuts its outlooks for the economy, inflation next week

Bank of Japan expected to cut this fiscal year’s economic, price forecasts in its quarterly projections due next week

The BOJ monetary policy meeting is on October 28 and 29. The quarterly Outlook report is due at the conclusion of this meeting.

Reuters with the report of the expected downgrades citing unnamed sources.

Germany reports 6,868 new daily coronavirus cases in latest update today

The daily death count hits the highest since late May though

The 6,868 new cases is still on the high side and more than what we have seen during the first wave of the pandemic in Germany. As of yesterday, active cases hit over ~61,700. For some context, that figure was reduced to less than ~5,000 in mid-July.
RKI also reports another 48 deaths in the latest update, which is the highest single daily count since late May, bringing the total tally on that front to 9,836 persons.
Yesterday also saw the number of ‘high risk’ areas in Germany move above 100 to 108 districts – an increase of 15 – with 411/412 districts in the country reporting cases.
Once again, as the virus situation continues to worsen, just be mindful of tighter restrictions being introduced and that should weigh further on the economic recovery.

Moderna CEO Expects Covid-19 Vaccine Interim Results in November

Wall Street Journal with the report

Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel 
  • said the federal government could authorize emergency use of the company’s experimental Covid-19 vaccine in December, if the company gets positive interim results in November from a large clinical trial.
The Journal adds:
  • Mr. Bancel’s comments suggest Moderna’s timetable isn’t far off from Pfizer’s, which said last week it expects to seek U.S. authorization of emergency use of its vaccine by late November.  

Link for more (may be gated)