- 43 of 56 economists say the BOE will raise the bank rate by 50 bps in December
- 13 of 56 economists say the BOE will raise the bank rate by 75 bps in December
- The terminal rate forecast by the poll is at 4.25% – similar to the November poll
- 15 economists say risk to terminal rate forecast would be “later and higher than expected”
- 7 economists say risk to terminal rate forecast would be “earlier and lower than expected”
- Median response of 90% when asked about probability of a recession in the next year
Given surging inflation pressures, the BOE will continue to feel badgered into tightening monetary policy further for the time being. There was already some pushback by Bailey & co. in the November policy meeting, hinting that the terminal rate would be at “a lower peak than 5.20% priced into markets”.
In other words, they are already angling towards a slower pace of tightening and with a prolonged recession on the cards, they might just be the first major central bank to pause rate hikes.
The November FOMC meeting statement caused a bit of a stir when the Fed introduced this new passage to markets:
“In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
Fed chair Powell’s press conference helped to calm the nerves of dollar bulls as he signaled a higher terminal top for rates.
As such, the meeting minutes release today will be of particular interest to see how is the debate going with regards to all of the above.
What is the opinion of other Fed policymakers on Powell’s communique? Are there policymakers that feel that the central bank should be taking it slower when it comes to the pace of tightening? Is there going to be a firm pushback in the language on the supposed Fed pivot?
That’s quite a lot for markets to consider, especially now with the dollar at a checkpoint and broader market sentiment also looking rather indecisive since the end of last week.
And all of this will come right before the Thanksgiving holiday, which will come tomorrow. That will make for thinner liquidity conditions all the way through to the weekend.