Via a research piece from Bank of Montreal, this in brief:
- The risk of a North American recession over the next year has now climbed above 50%.
- a moderate downturn in the first half of 2023 in both the U.S. and Canadian economies
Forecasts for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC):
- we are now expecting a 75 bp hike in November
- 50 bps in December
- and 25 bps at the first meeting in 2023
- taking the funds rate to a peak of 4.50%-to-4.75% early next year, a net addition of 25 bps at each one of those three meetings. And then we expect that rate to hold through 2023.
More of this to come then?