Société Générale see EUR/USD to as low as 0.95 next quarter

An ICYMI EUR/USD view from SG:

  • As oil prices rose in the run-up to the GFC, both European and US terms of trade suffered, but this time around, the relative effect is completely different. From a US perspective, this highlights the positive impact on the dollar of rising energy prices; for the euro, it just highlights the scale of the challenge confronting the continent.
  • I can’t see a significant rebound for any European currency until we get through the gas crisis.
  • Our current forecasts look for EUR/USD to trough in Q3, in a 0.95-1.00 range, and while that level may be about right, it’s harder now, to see a bounce before the end of the year.
eurusd chart 25 August 2022 22
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