Week ahead – 25-29 July – Highlights: FOMC, EZ & Australian CPI, US PCE

  • MON: Germany Ifo Survey (Jul), US National Activity Index (Jun)
  • TUE: NBH Announcement, US Monthly Home Prices (May), US Richmond Fed Index (Jul)
  • WED: FOMC Announcement, Chinese Industrial Profits (Jun), Australian CPI (Q2), US Durable Goods (Jun)
  • THU: EZ Sentiment Survey (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), US PCE Advance (Q2)
  • FRI: Australian PPI (Q2), German Flash GDP (Q2); German Unemployment (Jul), EZ Flash CPI (Jul), US PCE (Jun), US Chicago PMI (Jul), Canadian GDP (May), US Dallas Fed PCE (Jun), BoJ SOO

NBH ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): Based on recent commentary the NBH will likely decide to conduct a further hike to their Base Rate which currently stands at 9.75%, at the same level as their One-Week Deposit Rate following a 200bp increase. ING looks for a 1.25% increase given it’s the average of the last two meetings 50bp and 200bp moves; however, caveating that with expectations so high, the bar for a disappointment is low and EUR/HUF could revert back to 410 over the summer. At the last update, Deputy Governor Virag said hikes will continue in determined steps, altering from their prior “gradual” language. Adding, that hikes are set to continue until such a time as when CPI is seen peaking; for reference, the last inflation release was prior to the One-Week’s 200bp move and had the headline YY lifting to 11.7% (prev. 10.7%, exp. 11.5%). The next inflation print is due on August 9th. Elsewhere, at the meeting, Virag added that they will be acting against FX movements which pose a sustained threat to price stability. A pledge that has been followed by days of concerted action from the NBH on this front, providing over EUR 1.5bln of liquidity to banks since at daily swap tenders. (more…)

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