Inflation data highlights the agenda in Europe today German, French, Spanish final consumer inflation reports for June to be released

It’s a quieter start to the new day with major currencies not doing a whole lot and equities being little changed. The mood is likely to keep that way as all eyes are on the US CPI data later today.

The RBNZ delivered on expectations by raising its OCR by 50 bps to 2.50%, with the decision earlier here. The Bank of Canada is set to continue the central bank bonanza this month by hiking rates by 75 bps to 2.25% later today.

After briefly touching parity yesterday, EUR/USD saw a slight pullback as the dollar also ceded some ground. But in the grand scheme of things, the greenback remains in good stead as risk tones continue to look fairly sluggish so far this week.

A deeper inversion in the US 2s10s could also be something to be wary about as markets start to identify with stronger indicators of a recession. But all else being equal, there will be a slow churn towards key central bank meeting decisions next week (BOJ and ECB) and later in the month (Fed).

Looking ahead today, euro area inflation data will help to move things along but expect markets to stay focused on what the US CPI data has to offer before committing to any further moves this week.

0600 GMT – UK May monthly GDP data
0600 GMT – Germany June final CPI figures
0645 GMT – France June final CPI figures
0700 GMT – Spain June final CPI figures
0900 GMT – Eurozone May industrial output
1100 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 8 July

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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