US Nonfarm payroll report due Friday, 8 July 2022

nfp 08 July 2022

  • Employment gains are slowing, and we view this as inevitable as more of the unemployed have found jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped well below 4%.
  • Strong employment, however, is how we interpret an increase of nearly 300K jobs in a month.
  • Trucking, delivery, food services and healthcare remain areas of recovery and growth for job markets.
  • We expect the unemployment rate to edge back down to 3.5% for June, possibly very soon.
  • A rising labor force participation rate (more people entering the labor force) is one pro-growth factor that can steady the unemployment rate, preventing a decline, even when the economy is strong. Later, as businesses reduce their demand for labor, smaller job gains are why the unemployment rate stabilizes or begins to rise.”


  • payrolls should reflect moderating but still healthy jobs growth in June (Westpac f/c: +300k, market f/c +268k),
  • keeping pressure on the unemployment rate (Westpac & market f/c: 3.6%)
  • and supporting robust growth in average hourly earnings (Westpac & market f/c: 0.3%).
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