The latest Reuters poll has 67 of 91 analysts polled forecasting a 75-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in July.
- would take the fed funds rate to a range of 2.25%-2.50%, which is around a ‘neutral’ level
The Reuters report goes on:
- A strong majority expect the central bank to hike its policy rate by another 50 basis points in September,
- with opinion more split on whether it will hike by 25 or 50 basis points in November.
- A majority expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
- That would take the fed funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of this year, 75 basis points higher than thought in a poll published just two weeks ago.
- “Since the Fed is still underestimating the inflation problem … not recognizing that a wage-price spiral has already started, we expect they will have to raise rates faster than they now expect,” Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank, wrote in a note. “Unfortunately, the hiking path is also likely to be followed by a recession.”