Most economists surveyed say the Federal Reserve to hike by 75bps in July (Reuters poll)

The latest Reuters poll has 67 of 91 analysts polled forecasting a 75-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in July.

  • would take the fed funds rate to a range of 2.25%-2.50%, which is around a ‘neutral’ level

The Reuters report goes on:

  • A strong majority expect the central bank to hike its policy rate by another 50 basis points in September,
  • with opinion more split on whether it will hike by 25 or 50 basis points in November.
  • A majority expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
  • That would take the fed funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of this year, 75 basis points higher than thought in a poll published just two weeks ago.
  • “Since the Fed is still underestimating the inflation problem … not recognizing that a wage-price spiral has already started, we expect they will have to raise rates faster than they now expect,” Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank, wrote in a note. “Unfortunately, the hiking path is also likely to be followed by a recession.”
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