Newsquawk Week Ahead Preview: Highlights include US CPI, China CPI, ECB, RBA

  • MON: Chinese Services PMI Final (May).
  • TUE: RBA Announcement; EZ Sentix (Jun); EIA STEO.
  • WED: RBI Announcement; NBP Announcement; Japanese GDP Final (Q1); EZ Employment Final (Q1) and GDP (Q1 Revisions).
  • THU: ECB Announcement; Chinese Trade Balance (May).
  • FRI: CBR Announcement; Chinese Inflation (May); Norwegian CPI (May); US CPI (May); Canadian Labor Market Report (May); University of Michigan Prelim (Jun).

NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order

RBA Announcement (Tue):

The RBA is expected to continue hiking rates, and analysts expect a 25bps increase to the Cash Rate Target, taking it to 0.60% from the current level of 0.35%; OIS fully priced in a 25bps hike, and imply that there is probability for a more aggressive move. As a reminder, the central bank surprised markets at its last meeting by delivering a larger-than-expected increase of 25bps (exp. 15bps), and stated that further rises in interest rates would be required in the period ahead, adding that it was committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that Australian inflation returns to target over time. Minutes from that policy meeting noted that the Board considered three options: a 15bps, a 25bps and a 40bps rate rise, ultimately coming to the conclusion that a 15bps increase would have been inconsistent with the historical practice of changing the Cash Rate in 25bps increments, while an argument for a 40bps increase could be made given the upside risks to inflation and current very low level of interest rates. Governor Lowe has also kept the door open regarding the pace of rate increases, recently stating that he does not preclude bigger or smaller rate moves in the future, and that the Board was not on a pre-set path. As such, there are varied expectations for the upcoming meeting. Goldman Sachs anticipates the RBA will lift rates by 50bps at its next two meetings; Westpac has upgraded its call for June to a 40bps hike from a prior view of 25bps; AMP Capital expects the RBA to stick with a 25bps move; ANZ Bank suggested that a 40bps RBA hike in June will likely be discussed, but caveated that a Wage Price Index of +1.0% would be needed to trigger a 40bps move, and this failed to materialise with the Wage Price Index softer than expected at 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.8%.

RBI Announcement (Wed): (more…)

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