Some comments from ANZ’s preview of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting coming up on 25 May 2022 (the RBNZ will issue a Monetary Policy Statement and follow up with a Media Conference from Governor Orr).
- We expect the RBNZ will raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 2.00%
- Beyond that, the path is murkier. We continue to expect the RBNZ to switch to the more usual pace of 25bp hikes from July onward as evidence mounts that demand is cooling.
- However, if any more upside surprises to inflation emerge, the hurdle for another 50-pointer in July is low.
RBNZ tightening began last year, on October 6: