The first official estimate of Q1 US GDP was -0.4% and now second quarter forecasts are falling.
It’s still very early but the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed model is +1.8%, down from +2.2% on May 4 (both annualized q/q).
“After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -1.3 percent to -2.8 percent,” the release said.
Given the tone in markets lately, I can’t see the consumer or business sentiment improving in May-June. There’s still plenty of reason to believe in the US economy but every day that stocks plunge is another hit.
EU’s new round of sanctions include oil ban but still missing agreement on investment in oil infrastructure, sale of property to Russians in Cyprus
Considers more funds for oil infrastructure in eastern Europe in bid to get a deal
The bottom line here is that a deal is getting closer. That said, Russia’s real problem is transport. There are buyers for its oil all over the world and if they can get more tankers in ports, then they can continue to export.
Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its Arab Light crude grade to Asia and Europe for the month of June
Oil producer Saudi Aramco released the new pricing on Sunday.
price of the Arab Light benchmark sold in the US in June unchanged from the previous month
Arab Light sold in June in the Far East priced $4.40 per barrel above the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, compared to a price differential of +$9.35 in May (Asia pricing hit an all time high for May)
For buyers in northwest Europe, the Arab Light price differential versus the ICE Brent was +$2.10 per barrel in June compared to +$4.60 in May