The Federal Open Market Committee statement is due on Wednesday 4 May at 1800 GMT
- Powell’s press conference follows at 1830 GMT
- A half point hike in the fed funds target range to 0.75%–1.0% is expected alongside implementation of plans to shrink the balance sheet.
- A move other than a half percentage point hike would be a surprise to markets.
- One thing to watch for would be any signs of a shift in the explanation of the drivers of inflation toward something that is now believed to be longer-lived.
- Nothing in the March dot plot indicates that the Fed plans on pausing rate hikes any time soon.
- The direction of risks to inflationary pressures remains pointed higher and is likely to result in Chair Powell maintaining a hawkish stance.