EU oil ban on Russia is imminent after Germany drops opposition – report

Reports earlier in the week highlighted that this was coming, so I don’t think it’s a big market mover but keep an eye on crude oil, which is now at the highs of the week.

The WSJ — citing a source — said that Germany has lifted its objection to a phased-in Russian oil embargo. Before the war, Germany imported 35% of its oil from Russia.

The report highlights issues around refinery supply but notes that Poland is now willing to supply a key refinery via Gdansk. Notably, that refinery is owned by Rosneft.

“Should Rosneft refuse to process non-Russian oil imports, Germany could put the refinery under state management under laws protecting strategic assets,” the report says.

What’s not addressed here is the many other countries in eastern Europe that rely on Russian oil — some of them 100%.

The Bank of Japan policy meeting is today – here is every preview of it

The Bank of Japan does not have a set time for its announcement and statement.

Some time in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window is usually a safe bet.

What follows is a bit tongue-in-cheek, it represents, in a nutshell, every BOJ preview you are likely to read today. That is, this is the set of consensus expectations for the meeting:

  • the Bank of Japan meeting is more interesting than usual due to the rapid fall in the JPY over recent weeks and months
  • the BoJ is expected to keep its ultra-easy policy settings unchanged, including its 10-year yield curve target at 0%
  • given the sharp drop in the yen there is a likelihood the Bank will amend its forward guidance, its Yield Curve Control policy, or indicate future changes to its YCC
  • in its Outlook Report the BOJ is expected to upgrade its inflation forecasts for the current year, citing the increase in oil prices

US Q1 GDP due Thursday – US officials watering down expectations

A senior US administration official:

  • data expected to show smaller growth in Q1 than Q4, slower inventory growth likely an issue after big jump in Q4
  • US GDP data also expected to show very strong household balance sheets, household consumption, business investment
  • US GDP data will show that ‘economic conditions are still very, very strong’
  • says Russia’s war in Ukraine likely to have muted impact on Q1 GDP data, US exposure to Russian economy is ‘fairly limited’
  • says Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index data expected to reflect ‘quite elevated’ headline inflation, but core  inflation  likely to be flat-lined or lower
  • US monitoring impact of Ukraine war on European economies very carefully-official
us gdp q1 28 April 2022

Meta earnings report mixed results. The fark

Meta is out with the earnings and EPS beat expectations but revenues miss:

  • earnings-per-share come in at $2.72 versus $2.56 estimate
  • revenues at 27.91 billion versus 28.20 billion estimate
  • Daily active users 1.96 billion versus 1.95 billion estimate
  • Monthly users 2.94 billion versus 2.97 billion estimate
  • sees a second quarter revenue guidance of $28 billion to $30 billion versus 30.63 billion estimate

Shares nevertheless are up 18% initially.

US stocks close mixed. NASDAQ down modestly. S&P up

A day after the Dow industrial average felt -800 points and the NASDAQ index fell -500 points, the major indices are closing relatively little changed ahead of Meta and others earnings.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average up 61.73 points or 0.19% at 33301.92
  • S&P index up 8.7 points or 0.21% at 4183.91
  • NASDAQ index down one .8 points or -0.01% at 12488.94
  • Russell 2000 down -6.43 points or -0.34% at 1884.03
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