Archives of “December 21, 2021” day

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Analysis, Trading Seminar

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:: The FX rate difference is to be calculated between TRY deposit account open/close dates; the rate will be announced every day at 08:00GMT/03:00EST by the CBRT. This boils down to ‘guaranteed saving bonds’ – Though how “guaranteed” they are is anyone guess. It’s certainly not the bazooka that is needed to fix the Turkish monetary woes. The Lira hasn’t budged on the announcement, but it’s hard to imagine that Mr Market will see this as enough to quell the TRY weakness for long. Lira coiled

  
Analysis, Forex

The Turkish Finance Ministry has announced their new measure (singular):

:: New deposit instrument to be used by individual investors, the minimum interest rate will be CBRT rate. In maturities of 3, 6, 9 and 12-months. If the FX change is above the CBRT rate, the difference will be paid in TRY to accounts.

:: The FX rate difference is to be calculated between TRY deposit account open/close dates; the rate will be announced every day at 08:00GMT/03:00EST by the CBRT.

This boils down to ‘guaranteed saving bonds’ – Though how “guaranteed” they are is anyone guess.

It’s certainly not the bazooka that is needed to fix the Turkish monetary woes.

The Lira hasn’t budged on the announcement, but it’s hard to imagine that Mr Market will see this as enough to quell the TRY weakness for long.

Lira coiled

ECB’s 2021 bond buying draws to a close

  
  Analysis

“Today will be the last day that ECB will be doing QE in the market as the ECB shut down for the holidays. Hence, there will be no buying until the markets open again after New Year, and thus there will not be support from ECB between X-mas and New year where there is usually modest liquidity, and we could see a wider BTPS-Bund spread”

With the ECB removing a sizeable pillar of support from European Govt Bonds, trading patterns could turn more erratic. Something that will only be exacerbated by the poor ‘holiday markets’ liquidity.

I don’t expect possible German lockdown news to impact bond pricing much, given that many worst-case scenarios are already fully or partly priced in, but we must be aware of the potential for choppy trade.

For now though, Bund yields appear happy to remain rangebound and dormant.

Sleepy bund yields

0.01% of bitcoin holders control 27% of the currency in circulation

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

The Journal cite recent research showing the concentration of Bitcoin ownership

  • The study showed that the top 10,000 bitcoin accounts hold 5 million bitcoins, an equivalent of approximately $232 billion.
  • With an estimated 114 million people globally holding the cryptocurrency, according to crypto.com, that means that approximately 0.01% of bitcoin holders control 27% of the 19 million bitcoin in circulation.

The article compares it with the 1% holdings of fiat wealth:

  • By comparison, in the U.S., where wealth inequality is at its most extreme in decades, the top 1% of households hold about a third of all wealth, according to the Federal Reserve.

Here is the link for more info. (may be gated)

BTC update:

btc chart 21 December 2021

Major indices close lower on omicron fears

  
Analysis, US Market

The major US indices are closing lower on omicron fears.

  • The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are on pace for their fifth negative session in six trading days.
  • The Dow industrial average was down just short of 700 points or -1.98% at it’s lows
  • The NASDAQ index fell as much as -2.04% at it’s lows
  • The S&P index fell -1.94% at it’s lows
  • The S&P index low price got closer to the 100 day moving average at 4523.05. The low for the day reached 4531.10
S&P
S&P index tested its 100 day moving average for the 2nd time

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average felt -433.30 points or -1.23% at 34932.17
  • S&P index -52.6 points or -1.14% at 4568.02
  • NASDAQ index -188.73 points or -1.24% at 14980.95
  • Russell 2000 fell -34.05 points or -1.57% at 2139.87
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