Archives of “December 2, 2021” day

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No plan to alter US SPR release

  
  Analysis

Russia’s Novak comments as well
The OPEC+ great to keep the production plan intact (increase production by 400k BPD per month) at least for the time period.

Russia’s Novak commented that:
the low market is balanced and demand is gradually rising
however he warned that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the omicron variant
Meanwhile US, they have no plans to alter their announced strategic petroleum reserve release despite the fall in prices of late.

Crude oil has been recovering off its low of the day at $62.46. It currently trades around $65 which is still below the high at $67.31.

US weekly initial jobless claims 222k vs 240K estimate

  
  Analysis

US weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims data

Initial jobless claims
  • US initial jobs claims 222K versus 240K estimate. Prior revised to 194K from 199K
  • 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 238.75K vs 251K. The average is the lowest since March 14, 2020.
  • Continuing claims 1956K vs estimate of  2000K.  This is the lowest level since March 14, 2020.  Last week continuing claims a 2049K revised to 2063K
  • 4 week moving average of continuing claims comes in at 2084.25K vs 2117K last week. This is the lowest average since March 21, 2020.
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 20 were in Virginia (+12,703), New Jersey (+2,061), Michigan (+1,926), Oklahoma (+1,490), and Minnesota (+1,465),
  • The largest decreases were in California (-7,233), Kentucky (-3,910), District of Columbia (-1,679), Missouri (-1,519), and Massachusetts (-1,410).

OPEC+ may discuss hiking January output by around 200k bpd instead of 400k bpd as agreed previously

  
  Analysis

Reuters with the headline, citing an OPEC+ source

That will be one of the options on the table alongside a plan to pause the monthly output hikes next month as the bloc will want some time to reassess the global situation in light of the omicron virus.
But at this point, it seems like sticking with the previously agreed plan of hiking output by 400k bpd is likely off the table in order to not further upset oil prices.

OPEC+ said to likely discuss pausing oil output hike for January among its options

  
Analysis, Crude

Reuters reports, citing OPEC+ sources

That shouldn’t be a surprise as it is pretty much the benchmark expectation that oil traders are looking for later today. If they do not go forward with that, I fear that we could see the ugly past few days in oil continue despite a light bounce so far today.
WTI crude is trading up a little over 2% to $67.03 at the moment.

Pfizer executive says does not expect significant drop against omicron variant

  
  Analysis

Remarks by Pfizer’s vice president of its vaccine team, Ralf Reinert

Pfizer
I reckon he’s talking about the efficacy here so that is a positive comment but he provides a caveat in saying that they still need to do more experiments and not speculate about anything at the moment.
As for the timeline, Reinert says that it could take up to 2-3 weeks to know if the vaccine will be effective against the omicron variant.

Plenty of Federal Reserve speakers ahead for Thursday

  
  Analysis

1330 GMT – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates virtual conversation, “Why is Housing So Expensive?” before the Biennial Real Estate Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas.

1600 GMT – Federal Reserve Board Governor Randal Quarles speaks on “Departing Thoughts” before virtual event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute
1630 GMT – Bostic again, participates in a virtual live interview, “Policy for Progress” before the Reuters Next conference.
1630 GMT – Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participate in virtual fireside chat, “State of the Labor Market” hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Bostic, Daly and Barkin seem to offer the most likelihood of trading-related commentary.
After Mester spoke earlier today:
  • Fed’s Mester says a quicker taper gives the Fed room to hike earlier if needed
Expect more of this from Fed talking heads:
1330 GMT - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic moderates virtual conversation, "Why is Housing So Expensive?" before the Biennial Real Estate Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas. 

Fed’s Mester says a quicker taper gives the Fed room to hike earlier if needed

  
  Analysis

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaking with Bloomberg

  • Says that she is open to the idea of a quicker pace of tapering
  • momentum in the economy is apparent, as shown by rising inflation rates
  • the Omicron variant is a new risk, but further research is needed.
  • the economy has learned to deal with waves of Covid waves during the pandemic
  • Fed should be capable of hiking rates a couple of time next year if necessary
Seats are filling up fast on the faster taper bandwagon express.

BlackRock says if vaccines work as expected economic recovery will be delayed, not derailed

  
  Analysis

A piece from BlackRock on the new Omicron variant, in summary:

  • We stay invested for now as a new virus strain and European COVID surge are hurting risk sentiment. Any delay of the powerful restart now means more later.
And:
  • A new, highly contagious, virus strain could trigger growth downgrades, worsen risk sentiment and have significant sectoral impact. We are concerned about the human toll and expect renewed restrictions on activity. We still favor equities for now, but would change our stance if vaccines were to prove futile. If they are effective, the strain only delays the restart of economic activity, and we would lean against any stock market pullbacks. Less growth now means more later.
BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager.
A piece from BlackRock on the new Omicron variant, in summary:
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