US Q3 GDP second reading +2.1% vs +2.2% expected

The second look at Q3 GDP

US Q3 GDP second reading
  • First reading was +2.0%
  • Q2 was +6.7% annualized
  • Q1 was 6.4% annualized
  • Personal consumption +1.7% vs +1.6% prelim
  • GDP deflator +5.9% vs +5.7% prelim
  • Core PCE +4.5% vs +4.5% prelim
  • GDP final sales 0.0% vs -0.1% prelim
  • Full report


  • Inventories added 2.13 pp to GDP vs 2.07 pp in first reading
  • Inventories cut -2.62 pp in Q1
  • Exports -0.33 pp
  • Imports -0.83 pp
  • Trade -1.16 pp and there was a 1.14 pp drag in Q2
  • Home investment -0.41 pp
  • Personal consumption added 1.18 pp GDP vs 1.09 in first reading
  • Government spending added 0.16 pp to GDP vs 0.14 pp in first reading

There are no big surprises in the data as soft consumer spending on goods was a drag while services spending didn’t return as strong as hoped for because of the delta variant. Notably, the drop in consumer spending on motor vehicles and parts alone was a 2.5 pp drag on growth.

OPEC members said to meet on 1 December with OPEC+ meeting planned for 2 December

Reuters reports, citing two sources

That means it is all going to go according to schedule with the JMMC to convene on 30 November before the meetings come about.
The question now is how will OPEC+ respond to the SPR release by several countries this week. But given how underwhelming the response is in the oil market, I reckon there’d be little need for OPEC+ to adjust its plans for the time being.

Germany November Ifo business climate index 96.5 vs 96.6 expected

Latest data released by Ifo – 24 November 2021

  • Prior 97.7
  • Current conditions 99.0 vs 99.0 expected
  • Prior 100.1
  • Outlook 94.2 vs 95.0 expected
  • Prior 95.4

The readings are more or less in line with estimates, though the outlook index did slide a little more than anticipated – reflecting growing pessimism towards the economy.

Supply bottlenecks, rising cost pressures and now the worsening COVID-19 situation are the key factors weighing on business and economic sentiment and all of which are not going to be resolved any time soon by the looks of it.
That will make for a nervous winter with the worries to spill over to the start of 2022.

Oil buyers keep the faith in fading the SPR release news

Oil is up another 0.7% to $79.10

WTI D1 24-11

The bounce this week comes as price came close to testing the 100-day moving average (purple line) but sellers fell short of contesting the key level.
And after the SPR release new yesterday, which was rather underwhelming to say the least, oil prices have bounced back as buyers fade the risks to the move after having been “worried” about it over the past two weeks.
As mentioned before, I’d attribute the oil drop more towards some technical exhaustion after having seen a run of nine straight weeks of gains from August to October.
So, a bit of a breather in the past two to three weeks isn’t exactly unfounded – not to mention that seasonally this isn’t a great period for oil in general.
I’d argue that gains are still more limited closer to $80 for now as COVID-19 concerns – especially in Europe – are a risk factor that seems to be circling back while we are also waiting on OPEC+’s next move when they meet up next week.
But for now at least, oil buyers have shown where their appetite is when coming back into the picture with regards to the charts. That provides some encouragement for more upside in the months ahead if the fundamental landscape plays along.

Indonesia targeting resource processing, looking to halt exports of raw bauxite, copper, tin in the years ahead

The President of Indonesia says may halt raw material exports, instead looking at onshore processing.

President Joko Widodo wants to attract investment into resource processing industry in the country.
May halt bauxite exports next year

  • copper in 2023
  • tin in 2024
President Joko Widodo
The President of Indonesia says may halt raw material exports, instead looking at onshore processing. 

Also, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister says France has committed m EUR for energy transition projects.

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