US initial jobless claims 268K vs 260K estimate

US initial jobless claims and continuing claims for the current week

US initial jobs claims
  • Initial jobless claims 268K vs 260K estimate. Prior week revised to 269. This is the lowest level since March 14, 2021 it was 256K
  • 4 week moving average 272.75K versus 278.5K. THis  is the lowest since March 14, 2020 when it was at 225.5K
  • Continuing claims 2.08M vs 2.120M estimate
  • 4 week moving average of continuing claims 2.157K vs 2.257K last week. This is thhe lowest level since March 21, 2020
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 6 were in Kentucky (+6,716), Ohio (+3,846), Tennessee (+2,411), Illinois (+1,893), and Michigan (+1,564),
  • The largest decreases were in California (-4,222), District of Columbia (-1,794), and Louisiana (-1,028).

S&P says “we still believe Evergrande default is highly likely”

S&P Ratings comments on Evergrande

  • Believes the government wants to unwind Evergrande in a controlled fashion
  • Or at least let an orderly debt restructuring take place
  • A big test for Evergrande will be in March and April, when large repayments are due
  • Evergrande has lost capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct
This is all nothing new but the first two points are they key ones to try and pay attention to or at least look for signs about. It all boils down to how Chinese authorities will want to handle the debt collapse and that will transfer to market confidence/anxiety.
But best be reminded that while Evergrande is the biggest name on the chopping block, it isn’t the only one facing such dire circumstances. Kaisa is the other big name to be mindful about alongside other Chinese property developers in general.

Dollar sluggish as European trading gets underway

Dollar among the laggards on the day

EUR/USD is up a little by 0.1% around 1.1335 as buyers are keeping a defense of the 1.1300 handle on the daily chart, maintaining some hope after the bounce from a low of 1.1265 in trading yesterday.
EUR/USD D1 18-11
That said, sellers are still in near-term control with the 100-hour moving average seen @ 1.1376 so there is much work to be done to invalidate the downside momentum.
But at least for now, buyers are trying to establish a base so there’s that.


Oil – Reports that Iran has increased its high-enriched uranium inventory by 77%

The latest International Atomic Energy Agency report says Iran’s store of uranium enriched to 60% levels increased 77% to 17.7 kilograms

This could be used in nuclear weapons says the report.
  • “The Agency’s verification and monitoring activities have been seriously undermined as a result of Iran’s decision to stop the implementation of its nuclear-related commitments,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi wrote in the restricted 13-page reported seen by Bloomberg
Talks with Itan are set to get underway again on November 29 – Itan wants U.S. sanctions on the country lifted in exchange for a cap on its atomic program. This latest from the IAEA does not auger well. Oil traders have been awaiting the return of Iranian oil to market if the talks are a success, although the return would still be a ways off.
More at the Bloomberg link above.
The latest International Atomic Energy Agency report says Iran's store of uranium enriched to 60% levels increased 77% to 17.7 kilograms

30 member countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) hold oil in reserves

With all this talk of tapping into oil reserves here’s an explainer on what they are who has these strategic stockpiles.

  • The US reserve currently holds about 606 million barrels …  enough oil to meet U.S. demand for more than a month … also maintains small heating oil and gasoline reserves in the U.S. Northeast.
  • Besides the United States, the other 29 member countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) … are required to hold oil in emergency reserves equivalent to 90 days of net oil imports. Japan has one of the largest reserves after China and the United States.
That’s from the Reuters explainer, link here if you are interested.
With all this talk of tapping into oil reserves here's an explainer on what they are who has these strategic stockpiles. 

European Union lawmakers agree on how to target big tech firms to limit anti-competitive practices

Reuters cite the FT on news that the EU parliament agreed to a deal

  • to apply to firms with a market capitalisation of at least 80 bn EUR and offering at least one internet service, such as an online search
Firms such as
  • Alphabet unit Google
  • Amazon
  • Apple (AAPL.O)
  • Facebook (or Meathead or whatever they’re called now)
  • Microsoft
  • China’s Alibaba Group Holding
  • Netherlands’ Booking
will be scope of the new laws.
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