China corporate bond defaults to rise next year but authorities will step in – Moody’s

Moody’s expects refinancing and default risks to remain high for certain property developers through the first half of 2022

As for the market as a whole, they see tightened funding access and increased investor risk aversion as key drivers for more defaults next year, arguing that:

“We expect the number of defaulters and amount of defaulted bonds in 2022 to remain low relative to China’s total onshore and offshore bonds. Chinese authorities will encourage debt restructuring or liquidation through the courts for distressed Chinese companies. But the authorities will step in to ensure stability if bond defaults were to spike and trigger systemic risk.”

They particularly single out property developers as being among the high risk profiles, with those having the characteristics of being “high leverage, reliance on the bond market with limited alternative funding channels, large or numerous short-term maturities” most exposed to potential credit risks in the months ahead.
That pretty much covers the likes of Evergrande and Kaisa, to name the two big ones.
Go to top