Oil falls $3 from the highs
From high to low in the past hour or so, oil is down $2.98, from $83.40 to $80.42.
The statement and OPEC comments didn’t include any clear reason for the selling. It may simply be a ‘sell the fact’ trade after a decision that was expected.
More broadly, the stronger US dollar is a headwind for oil and other commodities. However I’d argue that the dollar is strong because of a lower-rate path that’s being priced in. That’s good for both growth and the reflation trade, which should boomerang back into oil.
All that said, oil ran for nine-weeks straight starting in September and the bulls have been taking some off the table. In addition, Mexico is putting on its annual hedge at the moment, according to reports. That put selling could be reverberating through the cruve market.