Comments from Westpac on what to expect:
- Since the July FOMC meeting, the US has seen the groundwork for a taper laid, but also a number of significant data disappointments.
- While the August nonfarm payrolls miss saw Westpac push back the timing of the taper announcement from September to December, to allow momentum and risks to be further assessed, we continue to expect the process to run from January to June 2022.
- Thereafter, US activity and employment growth should remain robust, warranting a shift in the narrative around policy to rate hikes.
- Both stages of the policy outlook should be on display at the September meeting, with robust growth expectations to be confirmed and inflation seen at target. While the narrative will cover the risks, opportunities for the economy should be the focus.