OPEC monthly report is out
- Sees world oil demand next year rising 4.15 Million Bpd versus 3.28Mln in prior monthly report but 4.2 mbpd at Sept OPEC+ meeting.
- Sees demand at 100.8 mbpd next year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels
- August oil output rose 150k bpd (less than the 400k bpd increase in quotas)
- Keeps 2021 full year demand growth virtually unchanged at 5.96 mbpd
- 2021 non-OPEC supply lowered by 170 kbpd due largely to outages in gulf of Mexico
- Says oil demand in 3Q21 has proved to be resilient
- Global economic growth forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 5.6% and 4.2% respectively
- OECD oil stocks were 57 million barrels below the five-year avg
The report is here. The message is that the oil market is a bit tighter but nothing here is a big surprise. The next real catalyst is oil company budgets for next year. Some preliminary indications are starting to come out and it looks like discipline and deleveraging remains the theme. I’d be surprised if that changes. The finance community has cut off oil and governments aren’t doing it any favors so they’re paying down debt as fast as they can. The flipside of that is that under-investment is going to be a huge problem and demand is still rising.
WTI crude oil is up 92-cents to $70.58 today and has broken the Sept highs.