EIA US weekly oil inventories -1529K vs -4612K expected

Weekly US oil inventory data from the EIA

  • Gasoline -7215K vs -3390K expected
  • Distillates 3142K vs -2617K expected
  • Refinery utilization -9.4% vs -4.9% expected
  • Cushing +1918K
  • Production estimate 10.0mbps vs 11.5 mbpd prior
  • Implied demand -2.866 mbpd
The story here is that refineries ran slower than anticipated, which is going to continue to put a squeeze higher on gasoline prices.

This is a tough one to forecast and trade because of the ongoing effects of Hurricane Ida.
The API data from late yesterday showed:

  • Crude -2882K
  • Cushing +1794K
  • Gasoline -6414K
  • Distillates -3748K

Oil has had a wild ride today as it fell on the China SPR release but has completely recovered. At the bottom, I wrote “Counter-intuitively, I see this as bullish for oil because there’s been an overhang of Chinese inventories weighing on the market.”

Weekly US oil inventory data from the EIA
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