The latest forecasts from the EIA
- Sees 2021 US output falling to by 200K bpd this year vs -160K bpd in prior forecast (to 11.08 mbpd)
- Sees 2022 output rising 640K vs 650K bpd prior
- Sees 2021 demand up 1.55 mbpd vs 1.58 mbpd prior
- Sees 2022 demand rising 890K bpd vs prior forecast of 860K bpd prior
These are minor changes and forecasting oil supply and demand is very difficult (as the EIA’s record proves), especially coming out of a pandemic. I focus on the direction of changes and overall the signal is that supply is disappointing.