Why are rates moving up on a soft jobs report?
The bond market is the driving force in markets today as the counter-intuitive selloff following non-farm payrolls is continuing. The August high of 1.379% is just over one basis point away after breaking through the 200-dma at 1.333%.
The thinking in the bond market is that the Fed had risked tightening prematurely and snuffing out both a recovery and inflation prematurely. The softer jobs print gives them a reason to wait and that might extend the timeline beyond when bottleneck-induced pricing starts to fade.
Adding to the upside is additional supply, with the Treasury selling $38 billion in 10-year notes tomorrow.
So far the rise in rates is lifting the US dollar as USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CAD trade very close to session extremes.
Aside from the US-centric view, I’m beginning to wonder if worries about China and the ‘common prosperity’ plan are at work.