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Economic data coming up in the European session

Euro area manufacturing PMI data in focus

Summer
The dollar was a solid performer going into the month/quarter-end yesterday with there being not much unwinding even after the London fix.
That takes the likes of EUR/USD back to the post-FOMC lows around 1.1850 and while ranges are narrow today, technicals may come into more importance later before we get to the US non-farm payrolls release tomorrow.
USD/JPY also managed a close above 111.00 and that may prove to be an important technical breakout for the next upside leg to extend.
Data releases won’t offer much in Europe later today as the OPEC+ meeting takes center stage, so focus on the charts instead before the payrolls on Friday.
0600 GMT – Germany May retail sales data
Prior release can be found here. German retail sales is estimated to show a solid bounce in May after a more dismal Q1, with looser restrictions also set to bolster the outlook further going into the latter stages of Q2 and 2H 2021.
0630 GMT – Switzerland June CPI figures
Prior release can be found here. Swiss inflation is expected to keep more subdued despite price pressures in general being more solid across the globe as of late. That will keep things as it is when it comes to the SNB so no change to the narrative there.
0715 GMT – Spain June manufacturing PMI
0730 GMT – Switzerland June manufacturing PMI
0745 GMT – Italy June manufacturing PMI
0750 GMT – France June final manufacturing PMI
0755 GMT – Germany June final manufacturing PMI
0800 GMT – Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI
Focus will be on the final readings in France, Germany, and overall Eurozone though they should not tell us much of anything new since these will be the final releases.
0830 GMT – UK June final manufacturing PMI
The preliminary report can be found here. There shouldn’t be much to add with UK manufacturing conditions keeping more solid after the reopening in April.
0900 GMT – Eurozone May unemployment rate
Prior release can be found here. Labour market conditions in the region are expected to keep steadier and the German report for June does provide some encouragement that things are on the right track going into 2H 2021.
1130 GMT – US June Challenger layoffs, job cuts
Prior release can be found here. A reminder that it is NFP week in the market. The data provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region and acts as a general labour market indicator.

OPEC+ in focus today after quarter-end charade

The OPEC+ meeting takes center stage today

OPEC
Things are looking fairly quiet in the market for the time being with attention turning away from the month/quarter-end and on to the OPEC+ meeting later today.
The dollar held firmer yesterday and pushed forward with gains but oil was a decent performer, with WTI keeping steady to settle around $73.50.
The expectation is for a 500k bpd output increase by OPEC+ but there are risks that the bloc may hike output by a bit more than that, though there is some degree of consideration that they may not want to risk unsettling the market at this stage.
Either way, as long as demand conditions and the global economic outlook keeps as it is, I would expect any hiccups here to still be overlooked with oil prices likely to stay perky in the bigger picture of things.
Some posts to chew through before the main event later:

China Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI for June 51.3 (expected 51.8)

51.3 is a 3 month low
  • 14th month straight in expmanison
  • Export sales stagnated
  • employment continued to rise
  • easing cost pressures
From the report, summary comments:
  • Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to stably expand in June, despite the impact of the pandemic. Both demand and supply in the sector remained stable, as did external demand, showing the momentum of economic recovery still remained in the post-epidemic period. The job market continued to improve and businesses were highly optimistic, with the measure for future output expectations in June higher than the longterm average. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat, but manufacturing enterprises’ purchasing prices and factory-gate prices still rose. The shortage of raw materials continued in some regions. The manufacturing sector has gradually returned to normal. In the second half of this year, the low base effect from last year will weaken. Inflationary pressure, coupled with the economic slowdown, is still a serious challenge for China.

Japan – Jibun Bank/Markit Manufacturing PMI (final) for June: 52.4 (prior 53.0)

From the report:
  • softer expansions in both production and new orders
  • the headline Manufacturing PMI was at its lowest reading since February
  • “Manufacturers continued to note concern regarding ongoing supply chain disruption, which has induced sharp rises in the price of raw materials amid severe shortages. Cost burdens faced by businesses rose at the sharpest pace since March 2011, which has partially translated to higher charges for clients to cover margins. 
  • “That said, Japanese manufacturers commented that the degree of optimism regarding the outlook for output over the coming 12 months strengthened in June. Confidence about the outlook reached the highest level since the series began in July 2012, as hopes of an end to the pandemic gathered pace. This is broadly in line with the IHS Markit forecast for industrial production to grow 8.8% in 2021, though this does not fully recoup losses from the pandemic.”
USD/JPY continues to trade in a very small range. It has traded above 111.16 to its highest since March of 2020.
South Korea manufacturing PMI 53.9 from 53.7 previously. Out at the same time.

BOJ Tankan Q2: Large Manufacturers Index 14 (vs. expected 15)

The Bank of Japan Tankan survey for March – June 2021

Large Manufacturers Index 14
  • expected 15
  • previous 5
Large Non-Manufacturing Index 1

 

  • expected 3
  • previous -1
  • the September outlook is 3

 

Large All Industry Capex 9.6%

 

  • expected 7.2%
  • prior 3%

 

Large Manufacturing Outlook 13 for September

 

  • expected 18
  • prior 4

 

USD/JPY has ticked a little higher in early Asia trade but the response to the release of the BOJ’s Tankan is barely discernible.

US Indices end the session mixed

S&P closes at a record high

The US stocks are ending the session mixed with the Nasdaq down, and the Dow and S&P higher.  The S&P closed at a record high.
Today is month end, quarter end and the end of the 1st half of the year.  The numbers for each are showing:
  • S&P is higher for the fifth straight month. the S&P rose 2.3% for the month. It rose 8.17% for the quarter.  For the year the index is up 14.3%
  • Dow Jones closed near unchanged for the month. The index rose 4.6% for the quarter and is up 12.7% for the year
  • Nasdaq closed the month up 5.49%.  It is up 9.49% for the quarter. For the year the index is up 12.54%.
For today, the NASDAQ lagged, while the Dow led
  • Dow rose 210.2 to points or 0.61% at 34502.52.
  • S&P index rose 5.7 points or 0.13% of 4297.50
  • NASDAQ index fell 24.38 points or -0.17% at 14503.95
  • Russell 2000 rose 1.7 points or 0.07% at 2310.55