Goldman Sachs with a longer outlook on the AUD (12 months),m this via eFX
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- “In addition to potentially lower front-end pricing, weaker iron ore prices may weigh on AUD/USD. Despite their recent surge, our commodity strategists expect that iron prices will fall over the next 12”
- “Despite generally rising commodity prices, Australia-specific factors may continue to hold back AUD/USD vs other USD crosses. Most importantly, the OIS curve substantially over-prices our expectations for policy rates, and our rates strategists now see a sufficiently compelling case to own the Aussie front end”
Just to repeat, GS see iron ore lower over 12 months. Chinese markets have reopened today after a break on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and commodities are doing a catch-up surge.