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Goldman Sachs says Oil is going to $80/bbl due to largest demand surge

Goldman Sachs on oil and commodities:

  • Commodities will rally 13.5% in the next six months
  • oil to $80/bbl , global consumption will surge 5.2m b/d over the next six months, which is 50% larger than the next biggest increase over that timeframe since 2000 … “The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand — a change which supply cannot match — must not be understated”
  • copper to $11,000/ton
  • commodity markets have looked through the sharp rise in Covid-19 cases in India
GS forecast greater mobility, citing:
  • aided by vaccines,
  • a seasonal upswing in transportation, manufacturing and construction, beginning now and accelerating into June
  • pace of vaccination accelerates in Europe, increased travel demand will result
  • easing of international travel curbs in May
GS comments come via Bloomberg

Federal Reserve FOMC meeting today, Wednesday 28 April 2021 – Goldman Sachs say no hint of tapering

This preview in brief ahead on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting today, main points from Goldman Sachs:

 

  • We expect the taper timeline to keep rate hikes off the table until roughly mid-2023
  • Labour market slack remains too high for the Federal Open Market Committee to begin hinting at tapering
  • Economic recovery has accelerated sharply since the FOMC last met in March

 

We expect the FOMC to start hinting at tapering in the second half of this year and to begin tapering in early 2022. Our working assumption is that the pace of tapering will be $15bn per meeting, in which case it would take eight meetings or one year to complete.”

GS pic on the tapering time line ahead:

This preview in brief ahead on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting today, main points from Goldman Sachs:

At the close: Tech lags as earnings roll in

Closing changes for the main North American markets:

Closing changes for the main North American markets:
  • S&P 500 -1 to 4186
  • Nasdaq -0.3%
  • DJIA – flat
  • TSX +0.15%
Earnings are rolling out with Google blowing away estimates and climbing while MSFT sinks on results. During the trading session it was Google struggling and Microsoft finishing at the highs, which goes to show that not everything leaks.
Visa also beat and I’ll be looking for commentary on consumers.
Expect much more volatility in the main index for the remainder of the week as the Fed sets the tone. The mode lately has been to sell stocks after the Fed. Of course, every dip in the past year has been a buying opportunity.

It’s too soon for the Fed to taper – TD

The FOMC decision is Wednesday at 2 pm ET

The FOMC decision is Wednesday at 2 pm ET

TD Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow’s FOMC policy meeting.

We don’t expect any substantive new signal yet on tapering-or tightening-even as the tone on the economy is more positive than in March. We expect the signaling to evolve over time as the recovery proceeds, and we just changed our forecast for the start of tapering to March 2022 from September 2022,” TD notes.

In the absence of a major catalyst-fixed income or otherwise-technicals, positioning and 10yr TIPS has us biased to USDJPY downside ahead of the meeting,” TD adds.