rss

Near-term demand for oil may be derailed due to Europe virus debacle

A snippet from TD on their outlook (ps. ‘debacle’ in the headline is mine).

Firstly, on last week’s OPEC+ decision (ICYMI, no change to output but Saudi to reduce its voluntary curbs slowly in the on this ahead), re supply:
  • “OPEC+ deciding to phase in production increases over time, when combined with news that potentially there could be more Iranian output, could very well mean that the market perceives there will be an imbalance more than previously”
And, on the demand side:
  • “Demand from Europe being significantly slower may derail” the short-term outlook for consumption of oil
ps. As a counter, Goldman Sachs see increased demand ahead due to northern hemisphere summer months and suggest OPEC+ could increase supply at the next meeting (end of APril).

Barclays says market pricing of the Fed hiking cycle is too aggressive

Barclays cite the Federal Reserve’s “new framework” (which, ICYMI, is the Bank wants to see actual inflation above 2%, not just forecasts for inflation)

(which, again ICYMI, will delay any hikes, i.e. there will be no pre-emptive hiking … at least that what they tell us)
But what about tapering of the QE programme? That’s a way off too, Barclays analyst says (even after Friday’s strong NFP):
  • the road to full employment is still long
  • inflation is unlikely to remain at the levels priced in for long
(i.e. Barclays thinking, like everyone else, that the higher current inflation is transitory)
Therfore:
  • Market pricing of one hike by Q1 2022 & almost four by the of 2023 is too aggressive
Barclay’s caveat on there is still a long time until tapering (the first step to ‘normalisation’) is, “unless there has been substantial progress on broader metrics”

Dow and S&P close at record highs

Nasdaq still 3.3% from the all time high

The Dow and S&P both closed at record highs. The Nasdaq index rose sharply today, but still trades around 3.3% from the all time high reached on February 16.
For the day:
  • S&P index rose 57.91 points or 1.44% at 4077.78.  At the highs the S&P was up 1.59%. The low was +0.69%..
  • NASDAQ index rose 225.48 points or 1.67% at 13705.59. At the highs the NASDAQ index is up 1.78%. The low was +0.76%.
  • Dow industrial average rose 372.27 points or 1.12% at 33525.48. At the highs the Dow industrial average was up 1.4%. The low was +0.21%
  • The Russell index rose for its 4th straight day. The index closed up 10.98 points or 0.49% at 2264.89. The high took the price up 1.13%. The low was at -0.20%.

Leading the Dow 30 was

  • Walgreens boots, +3.73%
  • Intel, +3.1%
  • Walmart, +2.8%
  • Microsoft, +2.76%
  • Boeing, +2.55%
  • Home Depot, +2.48%
  • Apple, +2.36%

Some other big gainers today included:

  • GM, +5.61%
  • Roblox, +5.22%
  • LivePerson, +4.75%
  • Ford, +4.44%
  • Tesla, +4.36%
  • Rackspace, +4.16%
  • Alphabet, +4.12%
  • Whirlpool, +3.74%
  • Facebook, +3.43%
  • Corning, +3.39%
  • Delta Airlines, +2.91%
  • Dollar Tree, +2.87%
  • Microsoft, +2.79%
soma losers today included
  • Novavox, -4.59%
  • ViacomCBS, -3.97%
  • FirstSolar, -3.61%
  • Gamestop, -2.85%
  • Chewy, -2.16%
  • Schlumberger, -1.96%
  • Snowflake, -1.85%
  • Goldman, -1.27%
  • BedBath and Beyond, -1.0%
  • Nio, -0.86%
  • AirBnB, -0.83%
  • FedEx -0.7%
  • Citigroup, -0.55%