A snippet from TD on their outlook (ps. ‘debacle’ in the headline is mine).
Firstly, on last week’s OPEC+ decision (ICYMI, no change to output but Saudi to reduce its voluntary curbs slowly in the on this ahead), re supply:
- “OPEC+ deciding to phase in production increases over time, when combined with news that potentially there could be more Iranian output, could very well mean that the market perceives there will be an imbalance more than previously”
And, on the demand side:
- “Demand from Europe being significantly slower may derail” the short-term outlook for consumption of oil
ps. As a counter, Goldman Sachs see increased demand ahead due to northern hemisphere summer months and suggest OPEC+ could increase supply at the next meeting (end of APril).