Bundesbank says German economy likely to contract sharply in Q1 2021

Bundesbank comments in its monthly report

  • The measures to contain the virus are on average stricter in Q1 than Q4 last year
  • Economic output will probably decline sharply in Q1
  • Activity in services in particular is likely to decline again
  • Higher VAT rates since the start of the year also likely to have played a role
  • Industry sector benefited from dynamic foreign demand, should have supported economic activity in Q1
Nothing that we don’t already know but keep an eye out on the daily virus numbers out of Germany for a sense of how things may progress next and at what pace. In particular, be mindful of the 7-day incidence rate – which has climbed to 107.3 today.
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